India's National Elections 2024: 'Over to the people,' poll begins to elect 18th Lok Sabha
Voting starts today to elect the 18th Lok Sabha. From Udhampur to Kanyakumari and Ganganagar to Itanagar, 102 constituencies in 17 states and 4 UTs go to polls in the first and largest phase, the only one with 100+ seats in the 7-phase election. BJP-led NDA is aiming for a hat-trick and the oppn, under INDIA bloc , is out to stop Modi
Whats at stake in Phase 1
NDA TO DEFEND: 43 seats, including 11 out of 12 in Rajasthan, 5 out of 6 in MP, all 5 in Uttarakhand, all 4 in Bihar, 4 out of 5 in Maharashtra, 3 out of 8 in west UP and all 3 in West Bengal. 36 of the 43 seats were won by BJP, 2 by LJP and 1 each by Sena (Shinde), JD(U) and NE allies.
CAN GAIN IN: Tamil Nadu, where the current alliance partners got no seats in 2019. UP, where it will hope to do better than it did against SP-BSP in 2019. And the lone seats voting in Chhattisgarh, Puducherry, Andamans & Lakshadweep.
NDA TO DEFEND: 43 seats, including 11 out of 12 in Rajasthan, 5 out of 6 in MP, all 5 in Uttarakhand, all 4 in Bihar, 4 out of 5 in Maharashtra, 3 out of 8 in west UP and all 3 in West Bengal. 36 of the 43 seats were won by BJP, 2 by LJP and 1 each by Sena (Shinde), JD(U) and NE allies.
CAN GAIN IN: Tamil Nadu, where the current alliance partners got no seats in 2019. UP, where it will hope to do better than it did against SP-BSP in 2019. And the lone seats voting in Chhattisgarh, Puducherry, Andamans & Lakshadweep.
INDIA TO DEFEND: 48 seats, including 38 of 39 in Tamil Nadu, 2 out of 8 in UP and 1 each in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Meghalaya, Puducherry, Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep. Of the 48 seats, 24 were won by DMK in 2019, 14 by Cong, 4 by Left parties, 2 by SP and 1 each by VCK, IUML, NCP and RLP, which is a new ally.
CAN GAIN IN: Rajasthan, where it won only 1 of these 12 seats last time, UP, where it will hope to gain from the farmer protests, Bihar where it had none of the 4 and Manipur, which is facing ethnic strife.
High-stakes battle
The Assam Scenario: 5 of Assam’s 14 seats go to polls today but it is not possible to categorise seats in the state as having been won by any party last time. That’s because seat boundaries have been redrawn since 2019. In the broad area in which the 5 seats lie though, mainly Upper Assam, BJP was dominant last time with Gaurav Gogoi the lone Cong Winner from what was then the Kaliabor seat.
Tamil Nadu : The state with 39 LS seats, all voting in this phase, witnesses a high-voltage triangular contest in which DMK has an arithmetical advantage after ADMK and BJP parted ways in Sept 2023. Chief minister MK Stalin has been unleashing a frontal attack on the PM and the Centre, which he calls “fascist”. While DMK, which won 38 of the 39 seats along with its allies in 2019, has vowed to win it all this time, BJP has shown how serious it is by fielding ex-Telangana governor Tamilisai Soundararajan, its state chief K Annamalai and Union minister L Murugan. Since elections were announced, Modi has visited TN three times.
The DMK alliance comprising Congress, CPM, CPI, VCK and IUML, is a cohesive team. BJP has managed to not only retain most of its allies, including the Vanniyar-backed PMK, but also rope in TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK. ADMK, now not at its best, had a higher vote share than BJP in 2019.
…& Rajasthan, West UP, Uttarakhand: Elections to 12 of the 25 LS seats in Rajasthan see BJP claiming advantage, eyeing momentum from its assembly polls victory last year. But the INDIA bloc is confident of making gains too. Union ministers Bhupender Yadav and Arjun Ram Meghwal are in the fray as BJP, like it did in the state polls, runs a campaign around Modi. All five constituencies of Uttarakhand, where BJP will hope for a hat-trick of sweeps, also vote today, as do eight crucial seats in west UP, where RLD is now in the saffron camp.
…& Rajasthan, West UP, Uttarakhand: Elections to 12 of the 25 LS seats in Rajasthan see BJP claiming advantage, eyeing momentum from its assembly polls victory last year. But the INDIA bloc is confident of making gains too. Union ministers Bhupender Yadav and Arjun Ram Meghwal are in the fray as BJP, like it did in the state polls, runs a campaign around Modi. All five constituencies of Uttarakhand, where BJP will hope for a hat-trick of sweeps, also vote today, as do eight crucial seats in west UP, where RLD is now in the saffron camp.
A look at the union ministers & other heavyweights in the fray today
Nagpur
2019 Winner : BJP (Nitin Gadkari)
Key contenders: Nitin Gadkari (BJP), Vikas Thakre (Cong/INDIA)
It was Nitin Gadkari who turned the tide for BJP in this former Congress bastion, which is also headquarters of RSS. The Union minister for highways won the Nagpur seat in 2014, riding the Modi wave. In 2019, Gadkari beat state Congress chief Nana Patole, though with a lower victory margin. This time, Congress has fielded local boy Vikas Thakre but with his appeal cutting across caste and religious lines, Gadkari starts as favourite again.
Dibrugarh
2019 Winner: BJP (Rameswar Teli)
Key contenders: Sarbananda Sonowal (BJP), Lurinjyoti Gogoi (AJP), Manoj Dhanowar (AAP)
In this headline fight in Assam, Union minister and former CM Sarbananda Sonowal goes head to head with Lurinjyoti Gogoi, the face of the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act movement in the state, who founded AJP to “champion the cause”. In a seat that was a Congress bastion – till Sonowal, then with AGP, breached it in 2004 – the grand old party has stepped aside for Lurinjyoti who, like Sonowal, has cut his teeth in AASU.
Arunachal West
2019 Winner: BJP (Kiren Rijiju)
Key contenders: Kiren Rijiju (BJP), Nabam Tuki (Cong)
It’s a 2019 encore here as Union minister Kiren Rijiju takes on former CM Nabam Tuki in the state, where big connectivity projects like Sela tunnel and Donyi Polo airport are BJP’s ‘Modi ki guarantee’ pitch. Rijiju, who won by 1.75 lakh votes last time, is confident of a hat-trick. Tuki, the only Arunachal MLA still with Cong after its other three joined BJP, has built his campaign around lack of jobs, skill development and foreign policy failures (citing China’s renaming of Arunachal).
Alwar
2019 Winner: BJP (Balaknath)
Key contenders: Bhupender Yadav (BJP), Lalit Yadav (Cong)
In this Yadav bastion, also Rajasthan’s main industrial hub, Union environment minister Bhupender Yadav, a part of the Modi cabinet, finds himself in a contest defined by a crippling water crisis. BJP has made a big statement by fielding a star candidate and Congress has responded with its own rising star, MLA Lalit Yadav. Much of the campaign has focused on ways to improve water supply but both parties face factional problems.
Bikaner
2019 Winner: BJP (Arjun Ram Meghwal)
Key contenders: Arjun Ram Meghwal (BJP), Govind Ram Meghwal (Cong)
In a constituency where he has had three back-to-back wins, Union law minister Arjun Ram Meghwal is back in the fray for a 4th term. Congress has thrown into the ring former state cabinet minister Govind Ram Meghwal in this reserved seat. With BJP holding six of the eight assembly segments here, Meghwal is confident of extending his winning streak.
Muzaffarnagar
2019 Winner: BJP (Sanjeev Balyan)
Key contenders: Sanjeev Balyan (BJP), Harendra Singh Mallik (SP), Dara Singh Prajapati (BSP)
Another win will clinch Sanjeev Balyan a hat-trick in a district that saw UP’s worst communal riots in 2013. But the Union minister is likely to face tough competition from SP’s Harendra Singh Malik, a 4-time MLA. The landscape for BJP is complicated by Rajput anger against it. Community leaders believe the party has betrayed them by allowing Gurjars control over Raja Mihir Bhoj's identity. BJP also has to contend with bitter rivalry between Balyan, a Jat, and former MLA Sangeet Som, a Rajput.
Another win will clinch Sanjeev Balyan a hat-trick in a district that saw UP’s worst communal riots in 2013. But the Union minister is likely to face tough competition from SP’s Harendra Singh Malik, a 4-time MLA. The landscape for BJP is complicated by Rajput anger against it. Community leaders believe the party has betrayed them by allowing Gurjars control over Raja Mihir Bhoj's identity. BJP also has to contend with bitter rivalry between Balyan, a Jat, and former MLA Sangeet Som, a Rajput.
Udhampur
2019 Winner: BJP (Jitendra Singh)
Key contenders: Ch Lal Singh (Cong), Jitendra Singh (BJP), Ghulam Mohd Saroori (Ind/DPAP)
Union minister Jitendra Singh and Congress’s Chaudhary Lal Singh face off in one of India’s largest LS constituencies. Lal Singh was elected in 2004 and 2009, and Jitendra Singh in 2014 and 2019. Revocation of J&K’s special status is at the centre of this match. Ghulam Mohammad Saroori, representing ex-J&K CM Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, is a third player to watch out for.
Chennai South
2019 Winner: DMK (T Thangapandian)
Key contenders: T Thangapandian (DMK), T Soundararajan (BJP), J Jayarvardan (ADMK)
In TN, the spotlight is brightest here. Quite explains why Tamilisai Soundararajan quit as Telangana and Puducherry governor to jump into the fray, why ADMK risked charges of dynasty politics to field Chennai strongman D Jayakumar’s son J Jayarvardan, and why DMK is firing on all cylinders after renominating Thamizhachi Thangapandian. The seat, which has the highest per capita income in the state, is associated with biggies like TT Krishnamachari, C N Annadurai, R Venkataraman, TR Baalu and Vyjayanthimala Bali.
Tuticorin
2019 Winner: DMK (Kanimozhi)
Key contenders: Kanimozhi Karunanidhi (DMK), Sivasamy Velumani R (ADMK)
After her acquittal in the 2G scam, Kanimozhi swept Tuticorin in 2019, defeating BJP’s Tamilisai Soundararajan by over 3 lakh votes. Representing DMK’s first family, Kanimozhi draws considerable support from the majority Nadars here as her mother belongs to the community. Her rivals – ADMK’s Sivasamy Velumani R and SDR Vijayaseelan of Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), a BJP ally – are also Nadars. The fisherfolk, predominantly Catholics, are known to back the DMK-Congress coal
Next Story