Why BJP needs more than a half-century in south to hit '400' in Lok Sabha elections

NEW DELHI: It took the mighty Brian Lara ten long years to surpass his own record of 375 and go down in history as the first batsman to ever score a 400 - a number that has dominated the political discourse in the Lok Sabha elections . As a nation that loves cricket as much as elections, parallels between the two are inevitable.

So, can the BJP-led NDA government which Prime Minister Narendra Modi claims is 'the only popular government in the world enjoying pro-incumbency after a decade in power,' achieve its much-hyped target of "abki baar 400 baar" in these elections?

Whether NDA manages to cross the 400-mark we will know only on June 4, but one thing we know for certain: for the popular poll cry to come true, the BJP-led NDA will have to make giant strides in the 130 seats that the south has to offer.

BJP ’s grand strategy for the south

The NDA fold led by PM Modi for all its brute numbers in the parliament is still only present in patches in the south. Akin to ‘swiss cheese’ as some would say. The BJP has a meager 29 seats out of the 130 with most coming from Karnataka and a handful from Telangana . However, what makes the BJP a formidable electoral outfit to reckon with is its adeptness in using its political muzzle to make ground in places where it had little to do.

The Prime Minister has led a campaigning spree in the run up to the elections. Since the beginning of the year, Modi has visited the region more than two dozen times, often to much pomp and show; inaugurated development projects; held roadshows and rallies for NDA candidates; stepped up his attack with gusto on DMK , Congress, BRS and the left.

In the 2019 elections, the alliance led by the DMK which includes Congress and CPM, won a landslide victory, taking 38 of the 39 seats. While the BJP drew a blank

Keeping up with the Prime Minister’s pace, senior ministers also from the BJP have ever so frequently paid visits and campaigned for their candidates.

Immediately after the winter session of parliament, the BJP laid out a roadmap for 84 constituencies in the south it had performed below par. It called them the ‘most vulnerable’ and deployed ‘vistaraks’ to better the prospects of the candidates. The foot soldiers were first tested in action during the assembly elections of 2017 in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.

Most BJP candidates in the south are also running on the plank of ‘ Modi ki guarantee ,’ making it more about the Prime Minister’s strong leadership and less about the candidates themselves. In a recent interview to TOI, BJP MP Tejasvi Surya, who is contesting against Congress’s Sowmya Reddy in Bengaluru south said, ‘Modi is the de facto candidate across India’s 543 seats.’

However, with most seats in Karnataka and steady increase in support in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the real challenge for the BJP comes from Tamil Nadu and Kerala ruled by parties with an ideological base in the state.

The BJP has steadily increased its vote share in Telangana from 10% in 2014 to 19% in 2019


Battle for the Dravidian homeland

Despite a growing voting base in North India, the BJP historically has never been able to make inroads of any significance in Tamil Nadu. The fact that the party’s vote share has remained less than 5% speaks volumes of the control regional parties have had over the state and also remains the only road block between the saffron party's mission to become a pan-India party in real meaning.

However, this time in a concerted effort to increase their prospects in vote share if not seats, the BJP’s campaign in Tamil Nadu has been led by the Prime Minister himself and the new face of Anamalai at the state level.

In a recent interview to ANI, Modi claimed that the anti-incumbency against the DMK is turning in favorable votes towards the BJP. The Prime Minister also went on to claim BJP state chief Anamalai as an ‘articulate leader’ fighting against an ‘anti- Santan’ & ‘dynasty driven DMK.’

BJP's vote share has remained at less than 5% throughout


The Prime Minister has invested a great deal of political capital in Tamil Nadu. Modi visited TN alone eight times starting from the run-up to the Ram Mandir consecration early this year.

From promising to export the ‘oldest language’ to the world in the manifesto, to placing the Sengol in the new parliament, to paying temple visits, to launching tamil sangams, to wearing local attire, to quoting local public figures such as Thiruvalluvar in public rallies, to even raking up the issue of ‘Katchatheevu’ at an ‘electorally selective time’ as the opposition claims, Modi has thrown everything in his arsenal to capture the public imagination, which has for the most part not been favorable to the BJP nor the Prime Minister.

The ruling DMK which won most seats in 2019, also recorded steep victory margins


BJP chief Annamalai's grassroots efforts and his challenge to the rival DMK have garnered attention. His popularity among the public and clashes with the ruling DMK party have thrust the BJP into the spotlight in the state. Though not aligning with the usual partner AIADMK, the BJP has formed alliances with over six smaller parties in the region.

However, chief minister Stalin, who is among the strongest regional leaders of the INDIA bloc claimed that PM Modi’s visits to the south are ‘to make up for the loss that awaits them in the North.’

Is the ‘God’s own’ Kerala too far to reach for the saffron party?

The Left Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF) have long been dominant in Kerala politics, but the BJP is now posing a strong challenge.

Currently, the Congress led UDF holds 15 seats while the left led LDF holds 1 seat

In an effort to mount a challenge, the BJP is fielding union ministers Rajeev Chandrasekhar against three-time Congress MP Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram, and V Muraleedharan against UDF MP Adoor Prakash in Attingal. Several high-profile Congress leaders have also defected to the BJP, such as Padmaja Venugopal, the daughter of former CM K Karunakaran, and Anil Antony, the son of ex-defense minister AK Antony.

BJP is keenly looking to make inroads into Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Thrissur

Ahead of the polls, the Prime Minister has visited Kerala seven times this year. From beginning his spiritual exercises in the run-up to the consecration of the Ram Mandir, to calling the BJP’s manifesto a ‘Vishu gift’ to the people of Kerala, to campaigning for his candidates in the states, to invoking local figures like ‘Narayana Guru’, to singling out the ruling government under CM Pinarayi Vijayan as ‘corrupt’ after his daughter has come under the ED radar, to accusing the Congress of taking help from the political arm of the banned PFI in Kerala, Modi has pressed on all the buttons to turn the tables in the state long driven by an ideological strength contrast to the BJP.

The Congress led UDF won 15 seats, while the left led LDF won 1 seat and the BJP drew a blank

The UDF and LDF are at odds over challenging the BJP, accusing each other of splitting the anti-BJP vote. While,the BJP hopes its appeal to the youth and the ban on the PFI could boost its support. The BJP also is tapping into the expat votes, as V Muraleedharan claimed in a campaign ‘the esteem of every Indian passport holder has gone up in the last few years.’

Though omnipresent across the districts of Kerala, the RSS time this around has taken the backseat due to BJP’s bid to veil its hard-line Hindutva face in the run-up to the election. Meanwhile, CM Pinarayi Vijayan, who is also among the senior regional leaders has claimed that people of Kerala won’t believe the heap of promises showered upon them by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his election rallies. In another sign of division, he also hit out at Congress for remaining silent on the controversial CAA in its manifesto. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi, who is the MP from Wayanad has said the ‘BJP will not cross 150 seats’ and called the upcoming polls a ‘battle of ideologies.’