The many ways monsoon affects your life

Former President Pranab Mukherjee, who was earlier a finance minister, had once remarked that the monsoon season (JuneSept) was India’s true finance minister, indicating the significance of rain during the period for the country. A lot has changed since then – large parts of India’s agriculture have been droughtproofed through irrigation networks, better varieties of seeds are being used — but the importance of summer (southwest) monsoon remains high, for some old and some new reasons.

It contributes 70% of the country’s rainfall and still supports farming sector to a large extent, recharges ground water and greens energy supply by making hydro power viable. Changing food consumption pattern, more open trade and increased role of sentiments in the economy have altered the way monsoon impacts our economic life. But first, what exactly is a normal monsoon?

Normal or above normal?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Monday that the country is “most likely” to experience ‘above normal’ rainfall. The seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87cm.

Factors indicating good rainfall

IMD believes the gradual weakening of El Nino (cli mate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean), expected development of La Nina (climate pattern associated with the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific), positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and below normal snow cover over northern hemisphere will ensure good rain this monsoon.

El Nino (means ‘little boy’ in Spanish): It occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months. It influences weather and storm patterns in different parts of the world. The current El Nino event, which developed in June 2023 and peaked in December, was at its strongest between Nov and Jan this year.

The Met department says moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate model forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition in the early part of the monsoon season.

La Nina (means ‘little girl’ in Spanish): La Nina is linked to good monsoon rainfall in the Indian sub-continent. IMD says La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half (AugSept) of the monsoon season. Records show that the summer monsoon was either ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ in most of the last 22 La Nina years since 1954, except 1974 and 2000 when it was below normal. Data from 1951 to 2023 shows that out of nine years when La Nina was preceded by El Nino, the summer monsoon seasonal rainfall was ‘above normal’ in two years, ‘excess’ in five years and on the positive side of ‘normal’ in two years.

IOD: It is one of the dominant modes of variability of the tropical Indian Ocean. It is an ocean-atmosphere interaction which is very similar to El Nino. It is, therefore, also known as Indian Nino. It’s defined as the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western regions of Indian Ocean and can significantly impact weather patterns in the Indian sub-continent and elsewhere, including southeast Asia and Australia. IMD says neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate model forecasts indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the latter part of the southwest monsoon season.

Normal for country may not be normal for your city
Instead of quantitative rainfall over the country as a whole, it’s the distribution of fairly good rainfall across states that matters the most. Though IMD’s latest forecast predicted good rainfall in the ‘monsoon core zone’ (rainfed agriculture region of India), its other rounds of forecasts next month and at the end of June, July and August will give a fairly clear indication of spatial distribution of rainfall.

Impact on farming

Water-guzzling paddy is the main crop of the monsoon season beginning June. Though states like Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh man- age to sow fairly large areas of land even during the ‘below normal’ monsoon season as they have robust irrigation networks and they use substantial amount of groundwater with the help of subsidised fuel, the states in ‘monsoon core zone’ that largely depend on monsoon rain suffer. It also reflects in their output of Rabi (winter sown) crops such as wheat and mustard. Rabi crops benefit from good monsoon rain as it not only fills reservoirs and water bodies for irrigation during winter but also provides enough moisture content in the soil.

Drought years, when the country gets less than 90% of LPA, on the other hand, affects the entire country. If we look at the past 10 years’ data, the deficient (drought) monsoon years of 2014 and 2015 resulted in a decline in overall food-grain production. Growing efforts to make the country drought-proof through measures such as expanding the irrigation network, water conservation, precision irrigation (drip and sprinkler) and use of drought-resistant seeds, however, have resulted in cushioning the impact of ‘below normal’ monsoon rains.

How monsoon impacts economy

The Indian economy, growing at 7% for three consecutive years, is expected to benefit immensely from a good monsoon. A bumper harvest adds to rural prosperity and triggers demand for everything — from motorcycles to mobile phones. It also helps calm prices as supplies improve. Robust rain also helps in reducing the demand for diesel used in the farm sector. It helps in recharging reservoirs and groundwater levels and also leads to greater hydro power generation.