How Hardik Patel joining Congress affects BJP's chances in Gujarat
The Bharatiya Janata Party is looking to minimise its erosion of Patel vote in Gujarat in the wake of Patidar leader Hardik Patel joining the Congress. In the aftermath of Patidar agitation, spearheaded by Hardik, the Patel vote seems to be moving away from the saffron party. Although the BJP won all 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, it declined to 99 Vidhan Sabha seats in 2017 from 115 in 2012.
The analysis of the 2017 Assembly polls presents an interesting fact. The BJP lost 16 seats in 2017 as compared to 2012 with the major dent coming from the Patidar dominated Saurashtra region. The BJP had won 30 of the 47 Assembly seats in 2012 in Saurashtra before being reduced to just 19 in 2017. Although the region had remained the BJP's stronghold since 1995, the Congress managed to win 28 seats in Saurashtra in 2017.
According to a survey conducted by Lokniti and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies following the 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP's vote share among the Patidars decreased with 68% of Kadva Patels and 51% of Leuva Patels voting for the BJP in 2017 compared to 78% and 63% in 2012. In comparison, the grand old party's vote share among the Patidars saw an increment with 27% of Kadvas and 46% Leuvas voting for the Rahul Gandhi-led party in 2017 as compared to only 9% and 15% in 2012.
Importance of Patidar vote in upcoming Lok Sabha polls:
The Patidar community forms 12% to 14% of Gujarat's electorate. Patidar dominated Saurashtra region consists of five Parliamentary seats – Rajkot, Jamnagar, Amreli, Porbandar and Surendranagar. With shifting Patidar vote base, the Narendra Modi-led BJP may lose some seats in the region. The chances of the Congress winning some seats in Saurashtra appears to have improved following entry of Hardik Patel in the party. Although the BJP performed well in Surat in 2017 winning 15 of the 16 Assembly seats, the Congress might gain some ground as Surat was at the centre of Patidar agitation in 2015.
BJP's strategy to fill the gap:
In the wake of Hardik joining the Congress, the BJP has been trying to woo the Other Backward Class (OBC) leaders from the opposition parties as the OBCs constitute 51 per cent of Gujarat's population. The saffron party last year managed to bring Bavaliya, senior Koli leader and the former Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) working president, into its camp. According to The Indian Express, the BJP needed a strong Koli face to replace ailing party leader Parsottam Solanki to woo OBC voters. Kolis alone account for around 20% of the electorate in Gujarat, making them the largest caste group.
The saffron party has been successful in bringing five Congress legislators into its fold, four of which are non-Patidars, reducing the grand old party's tally in Assembly to 71 from 77. With the changing political equations in the state, it is to be seen if the BJP can replicate its performance of 2014 Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way represent those of Times Network.
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