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In Haryana's Sirsa, Changing Electoral Scenario Poses a Challenge for BJP and Congress

Voters in the Sirsa constituency of Haryana seem to have a different agenda for the polls in comparison to the voters in the nearby districts of Rajasthan. Sirsa will be going to polls on May 12. It is amongst the bordering districts of Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana.

Quite like Rajasthan’s Ganganagar and Punjab’s Abohar and Bathinda, Sirsa has seen fast agricultural growth and modernisation in the past four decades.

However, unlike Punjab and Rajasthan’s regions where there have been protests against the various anti-farmer policies of the government, farmers and workers of the Sirsa region seem to be observing the situation patiently.

A major reason behind this silence is the recent drift in the Indian National Lok Dal, which got divided into two factions. Dushyant Chautala, who is the sitting MP from Hisar, formed the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) a few months ago after a tussle between his father Ajay Chautala and uncle Abhay Chautala.

Sirsa, traditionally, has been home to the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) leadership including the former deputy prime minister Chaudhary Devi Lal who hailed from Chautala – a village in Sirsa district near Rajasthan border. Since the last three decades, the district has been a stronghold of the INLD.

The Congress and the INLD were the two main political competitors in the region while the BJP was a marginal political force. Although the INLD candidate won the constituency in the 2014 elections, in the aftermath of the ‘Modi wave’, the BJP emerged as a powerful political entity in Sirsa.

Also read: Social Engineering and Opposition Disunity Favour BJP in Haryana

With 30% of its population belonging to the Scheduled Castes, Sirsa is a reserved constituency. Historically, it has been a bastion of the Congress. The Congress’s domination was challenged by the growing popularity of the Indian National Lok Dal in the last three decades.

Changing electoral scenario

The Haryana Congress president Ashok Tanwar, who is also the president of the Haryana State Congress, is contesting elections against the BJP’s Sunita Duggal. Tanwar served as the MP from Sirsa from 2009 to 2014 while Duggal is a former Indian Revenue Service officer. The INLD has fielded the sitting MP, Charanjeet Singh Rori again as a candidate while the JJP and AAP have formed an alliance with Nirmal Singh as the candidate for Sirsa from the JJP.

Dharama Singh, a traditional Congress supporter in the region and a respectable figure in the Dhanak community in Elnabad block, said that this time the Congress is in a winning position. Unlike the popular perception that the BJP has a stronghold in the urban areas, in Sirsa, the Congress is the dominant political force.

Besides, aarhtias (commission agents) and small traders are extremely disappointed with the BJP. Many of them have suffered massive losses to their businesses due to faulty implementation of the GST and its subsequent complications.

Similarly, workers have also been affected due to a downfall in the business of grain markets. Dharama Singh said that these factors would dominate the elections this time.

However, BJP workers are banking on the Modi factor. Though they accept that there is anger against the government in the region, they believe that most people, especially the youth, are supportive of Modi. Sanjay Kumar (name changed) who is a close aide of the sarpanch of Mamera village said that the state government has done some developmental work in the rural areas, which would help the BJP. However, he also accepted that there is a sense of unrest amongst various sections but the Modi factor would tide the party over.

Also read: In Haryana, an Age-Old Fight Over a Patriarch’s Legacy

The INLD’s traditional vote bank seems to be confused and disillusioned amidst this whole electoral politics scenario. Some of the young INLD supporters said that they have always been loyal to the party but today they are standing at a critical juncture where they have to make a choice between the two brothers.

Besides, what makes it difficult for them is the fact that the leadership from both the parties – INLD and JJP – have been approaching the voters personally to establish their contacts and they find it difficult to outrightly reject any of the parties. Some voters also hinted that, in this scenario, the doubtful voters may go either to the Congress or BJP. The BJP has been banking on this shift as they have been allies of the INLD in the region to keep the Congress out.

However, some of the voters we encountered clearly indicated that this would not be the reality. Despite the INLD having an understanding with the BJP, voters were likely to support the Congress’s candidate.

There are two major reasons for this. First, neither the INLD nor the JJP has shown clear support to the BJP. There are also reports that the BJP refused to form an alliance with the INLD. Secondly, voters are also inclined towards keeping the BJP out of the region. Ajay, who is an INLD supporter, said that they are still observing the situation and may make their decisions at the last moment. These swing votes could be a major determining factor in the region.

Fractured support bases

In addition to this, there are also caste equations at work. While the Congress is banking on the Scheduled Castes and some backward castes for support, the BJP, on the other hand, is looking up to the urban middle class (residing in the emerging small towns in Sirsa and nearby areas) along with the Bania and some Jat votes.

JJP leader Dushyant Chautala, AAP leader Gopal Rai, AAP candidate from Faridabad Naveen Jaihind and Ambala constituency former DGP Prithvi Raj during a joint press conference. Credit: PTI/Manvender Vashist

Besides, the BJP has also been working on expanding its support base amongst the non-Jat backward castes such as the Suthars and Kumhars, which are relatively better off. Some of the representatives from these communities said that although efforts have been made by the BJP, they would prefer to support the Congress or INLD candidate instead.

There are also some interesting rural-urban trends visible in Sirsa. Unlike the popular academic perception that the BJP controls urban middle-class votes, in this part of the country, it is the Congress that seems to have an upper hand. Demonetisation and the implementation of GST are the major reasons behind the consolidation of Congress’s support base in the region.

Also read: How Will Haryana’s Precarious Identity Politics Play Out in the 2019 Elections?

Congress’s primary challenge comes from rural areas. The BJP has been trying to expand its rural base through its nationalist propaganda as farmers tend to accept media propaganda in favour of PM Modi. Although the Congress candidate has been trying to reach out to various sections of the rural community, the BJP’s strong rhetoric makes it a daunting task.

Jats look up to the BJP as a force that can work towards good governance. OBCs and SCs, on the other hand, look at the BJP as a force that is capable of keeping a check on the Jat domination. INLD has largely been seen as a Jat-community-controlled political party.

An indecisive election

However, the strong political background of the Congress candidate and his commitment towards working for the marginalised sections is seen as a major determining factor of voter behaviour in his favour. In addition, the Congress has been highlighting its own contribution regarding the development of the region when Tanwar was the MP.

Sirsa is now connected to Delhi with a six-lane highway and it also has a nuclear power plant. During campaigns, Tanwar has been highlighting the fact that both these projects have contributed to industrial and business development in the region.

One fact is clear from our interaction with voters in Sirsa: the narrative of nationalism and the Modi wave are not major factors for voters in the constituency while making a decision. The political history of the Congress and INLD, local issues and leadership qualities will ultimately prove to be the determining factors on May 23.

Sudhir Kumar Suthar and Narender Kumar are professors at the Centre for Political Studies, JNU.

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