Muslim candidates could split Mewat votes, dash Congress hopes

GURUGRAM: The Gurugram Lok Sabha constituency, which has a significant number of Muslim voters, has two candidates belonging to the minority community in the race — Mehmood Khan of JJP-AAP alliance and Rais Ahmad of BSP — and they are likely to dent the chances of Congress candidate Captain Ajay Yadav.

Yadav is banking on around 4.5 lakh Muslim voters in Mewat , which is spread across Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka and Punhana assembly constituencies. These voters, according to party insiders, were expected to prefer Congress to BJP if no other Muslim candidates had contested the polls.

Captain Ajay Yadav has repeatedly has expressed confidence about support from Meo and Ahir communities, which he thinks, would give him the edge. Yadav, a five-time MLA from Rewari, is expected to give a tough fight to incumbent MP Rao Inderjit Singh of BJP. But the equations are set to change with two Muslim candidates contesting the polls. Yadav, however, is still confident about the support of Muslim voters. “Even if there is a Meo candidate in fray, people know who can defeat BJP,” said Yadav.

The Millennium City is a tiny part of the pre-dominantly rural parliamentary constituency. The Gurugram Lok Sabha seat, despite being very close to the national capital, and undergoing a massive urban transformation, is still likely to vote on the basis of caste, religion and local issues. Caste is going to play a major role in the elections this time too. Muslims, Yadavs and members of SC/ST communities account for around 50% of the electorate. Punjabis and Jats are other major groups in the constituency.

As per the past trends, almost 80% of Yadavs vote for a Yadav candidate. The Meos of Mewat always supported a Meo candidate, and vote en bloc. Traditionally, Meos vote for Muslim candidates. Presence of more than one candidate in the fray could split their votes, giving advantage to the BJP.

The Gurugram constituency, with around 22 lakh voters, is dominated by Ahir (Yadavs) and Meo. In this election, there are two candidates from both the communities. Congress and BJP have fielded Ahir candidates, while JJP-APP alliance and BSP have reposed their faith in Muslim candidates. INLD, known as the Jat party, has given ticket to a Jat candidate, even though the constituency has only 7% Jat votes. Zakir Hussain, who had contested on INLD ticket in 2014 elections, refused to contest this time, forcing the party to look for another candidate. Hussain is preparing for the Assembly polls.

JJP has fielded Mehmood Khan, who is from Mewat. He is an IIM Ahmedabad alumnus and a former top corporate executive.

“The party is hoping to get support from Muslims from Mewat and urban population from Gurugram and Badshapur assembly constituencies,” said JJP leader Rishi Raj Rana.

On the other hand, BSP has given ticket to Mumbai-based businessman Rais Ahmad, who is from UP. BSP has no significant support base in the constituency, but it had managed to garner 25% votes in 2009 elections after fielding a Muslim candidate. BSP, however, didn’t field a candidate in 2014, and now with another Muslim candidate , the party is hoping to make its present felt.

“In 2009, BSP had fielded local Meo, Zakir Hussain, and Muslims from Mewat supported him. This time, it has given ticket to someone who is not from Mewat,” said Ibrahim Khan, adding that BSP candidate Rais may get only a few votes from the community and will not able to consolidate the voters in his favour.

According to political analysts, if the Meos consolidate behind a Muslim candidate, Hindus in the remaining assembly constituencies rally behind a single powerful candidate, and that could be BJP’s Rao Inderjit, who has a massive support base in south Haryana. BJP supporters said Inderjit got around 50,000 votes from Mewat in 2014, hope that this time the number of votes would increase.