Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Second Phase Set To Challenge BJP's Electoral Supremacy

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections progress into their second phase , all eyes are on the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) and the Congress , both standing at a pivotal juncture in the political landscape. This phase encompasses 87 constituencies, excluding Betul in Madhya Pradesh, where polling has been rescheduled due to a candidate's demise, and certain polling booths in the Outer Manipur seat.

Out of these 87 seats, the BJP and its former allies clinched victory in 62, constituting a significant 71 per cent. Additionally, one seat was secured by its current ally, the Janata Dal (Secular), in the previous general election. On the other hand, of the 52 seats won by the Congress in the 17th Lok Sabha, 18, roughly a third, hail from the 87 seats slated for polling in this phase. Notably, 15 of these victories were in Kerala.

While the BJP didn't secure any seat in Kerala, it triumphed in 52 out of the remaining 67, with its allies seizing another 10 seats. Other parties such as the Janata Dal (United) and Shiv Sena clinched four seats each. Additionally, two independents supported by the BJP emerged victorious. Rana stands as the BJP's official candidate from Amravati this time around.

In Mandya, the BJP is lending its support to its ally Janata Dal (Secular)'s HD Kumaraswamy. As part of the alliance, JD(S) is contesting in Hassan, previously won by the party's Prajwal Revanna in 2019, and in Kolar, a seat won by the BJP five years ago but now allocated to JD(S). These contests, along with 11 other seats in Karnataka, are set for polling on April 26.

Moving to Maharashtra, out of the eight seats up for grabs, the BJP secured three, while its ally Shiv Sena clinched four. Notably, only the Parbhani MP is contesting on Shiv Sena (UBT)'s ticket, with the other three joining Eknath Shinde-led Sena.

The polling spans 12 states, including Assam and Bihar (5 seats each), Chhattisgarh (3 seats), Karnataka (14), Kerala (20), Madhya Pradesh (6), Maharashtra (8), Rajasthan (13), Tripura (1), Uttar Pradesh (8), West Bengal (3), and Jammu and Kashmir (1).

Amidst this electoral frenzy, speculation abounds about the potential victor in the Lok Sabha 2024 elections. Here are some insights from a survey:

1. The BJP maintains a significant 12 per cent lead over the Opposition INDIA bloc, with four out of ten voters pledging their support to the BJP. While the Congress is expected to make slight gains, it's unlikely to pose a significant threat.

2. Over half of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the BJP's decade-long governance, indicating a positive inclination towards granting the Modi government another term.

3. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Modi guarantee' is gaining momentum among voters, giving him an edge over Rahul Gandhi's promises.

4. Despite maintaining a lead, there's a noticeable decline in satisfaction with the government's performance compared to 2019, particularly evident in urban areas.

5. PM Modi's persona remains a decisive factor, with nearly half of the respondents preferring him as the prime minister over Rahul Gandhi.

6. The construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya stands out as Modi's most celebrated achievement, resonating strongly among voters, especially NDA supporters.

7. Rising prices and escalating unemployment emerge as significant concerns among voters, casting doubt on the sustained popularity of Modi and the BJP.

8. Despite economic challenges, the BJP maintains its lead, suggesting that voter sentiments may not solely align with economic performance, adding an intriguing dimension to the upcoming election.

9. The BJP's stronghold in the north and west contrasts with limited success in the south, although improvements in states like Karnataka hint at potential gains.

10. Direct contests between the BJP and Congress favor the former, but multi-cornered contests reveal a three-way split in support.

Alongside the political maneuvering, several key issues are dominating the discourse in the Lok Sabha 2024 elections:

1. Concerns regarding price rise and job scarcity are paramount, with over half of the respondents expressing apprehension about these issues.

2. A significant majority, comprising 62 per cent of respondents, perceive job acquisition as increasingly challenging, with only 12 per cent holding a different view.

3. Across various demographics, including Muslims (67 per cent), Hindus from Other Backward Classes (63 per cent), Scheduled Tribes (59 per cent), and upper castes (57 per cent), the sentiment of job scarcity prevails, underscoring the urgency of addressing this issue in the political agenda.