The tale of the great reinvention of Modi

Reinvention of Modi:
Paradoxical though it may sound, the idea of “Naya” or “New” is sweeping India and Pakistan amid a resurgence of the old narrative of mutual suspicion. Two years after he unveiled the idea of New India, are we also seeing the first signs of a “new” Prime Minister Narendra Modi? This question rises from the spirit of accommodation which has been the basis of sealing electoral alliances with troublesome partners.

In absolute contrast to 2014, when Modi believed that existing, one-time and potential allies would accept the BJP’s terms and conditions because they stood to gain, this time Modi and party president, Amit Shah, have shown a large heart, ceding seats in Bihar, accepting incessant derision from Shiv Sena’s leaders and willing to “sit down” with minor partner, Apna Dal, to decide the second seat for the ally.

In every pact the BJP has clinched, a more amiable face has been evident. This “newness” is indicative of a confident Modi who does not feel the need to play the game of one-upmanship any longer, the way he did with Nitish Kumar when he hoisted the Bihar chief minister’s hand for that infamous picture. Certainly, the BJP has taken one step backward while refurbishing the National Democratic Alliance.

This will enable Modi to take two steps forward in a post-poll scenario if the BJP’s tally does not match its 2014 performance and he is forced to get more partners on board. Is it because of this possibility that we are witnessing early signs of a reinvention of Modi, a Naya Vajpayee or Flexipurush?

Vadakkan & defection
Defections are part and parcel of polls and there are several reasons why these happen on election eve. For starters, once elections are called, lawmakers who change sides do not lose retirement benefits as parties rarely seek their disqualification. For instance, Savitri Bai Phoole, BJP MP from Bahraich, quit the party and is now a Congress nominee. She officially remains a BJP MP; the seat is not among 22 vacant Lok Sabha constituencies. Similarly, Saumitra Khan, the West Bengal legislator from Trinamool Congress who joined BJP in January, remains a Lok Sabha member.

Another reason is denial of party ticket. Case in point: Arjun Singh, Trinamool MLA from North 24 Parganas, who joined BJP. Parties encourage defectors based on calculations of what the turncoat brings along, a social base or an embarrassment for the rival.

Tom Vadakkan, for instance, has seemingly been assured of a BJP nomination from Thrissur in Kerala, the seat he desired to contest but was rebuffed for long.

With little political base, he brings nothing but personal ambition to the BJP. Yet, BJP sees several headlines and a wider political message in his defection — if personal aides of the Congress leadership are joining the saffron party, things must really be going its way. There are less high-profile defections too, for instance to BJP from BSP in UP, which have subterranean impact. A star defector has yet to appear, although speculations were rife on whether Sheila Dikshit would cross over after declaring Modi was stronger than Manmohan Singh on terror.

There is still time for defections.

400 ke paar, raising the bar
Is Narendra Modi the Sergey Bubka of Indian politics? Audacious, though, this may seem, the analogy is inescapable if one compares how Modi raises the bar for himself and the party to the Ukrainian pole-vaulter who represented the Soviet Union and broke the world record for men’s pole vault 35 times, including his own record 14 times. In 2014, when Mission 272 was announced, it appeared the then Gujarat CM was biting more than he could chew. But he astounded admirers and critics alike. Subsequently, in one state election after another — save for a couple of embarrassments in Delhi and Bihar — Modi encouraged colleagues to aim for the sky. This time is no different. “Abki Baar 400 Ke Paar” is as much a claim to outrage opponents as it is a slogan to galvanise cadre and spell an objective.

It is not just a national target; in states, too, different goals are being set and satraps encouraged to do one better. Most daringly, the bar has been raised in 80-seat Uttar Pradesh where Yogi Adityanath has set a target of “Abki Baar, 74 Ke Paar”. The ploy may not work, but the BJP has raised the bar for itself one more time, unlike Congress president, Rahul Gandhi, who announced he was simultaneously preparing for 2022.

Too late for Hardik Patel, too little for Congress
After the drubbing in Bihar in 2015, the closest that Modi came to receiving a jolt was in Gujarat in December 2017. History possibly will record this as Rahul Gandhi’s finest moment when he came closest to dislodging Modi from his citadel. Ending up with a tally which was lower than the three-digit mark that had become BJP’s normal in the state, the prime minister knew he had had a close shave. Modi managed to save face mainly because the Xfactor in that election, Hardik Patel, did not have as much value in the election equation.

Since then, the former firebrand has found it tough to retain support. Crowds dwindled and popularity sagged, the last straw possibly being the 10% reservation for the EWS.

In this period, the BJP has also been slowly chipping away at the Congress and by now has weaned away five Congress MLAs, getting them to quit both party and the state assembly with the promise of re-nomination in the ensuing by-election. Yet another Congress legislator has been disqualified from the House following conviction in an illegal mine case. Hardik Patel’s entry into the Congress in this backdrop may well end up being too late for him and too little for the Congress to bolster its fortunes.

Chor versus chowkidar
Exactly at 9 am on March 16, Modi tweeted a video, launching the campaign “Main Bhi Chowkidar” (I’m a Watchman Too) and effectively defanged Rahul Gandhi’s “Chowkidar Chor Hai” campaign.

Smart politics and ace campaign — yet another evidence of how Modi faces challenges or accusations head on. By saying common citizens too are watchmen, Modi again positions himself with the lowest common denominator. In 2014, the “chaiwallah” jibe was greatly responsible for his mandate. This time, it may well be by appropriating the slogan that Gandhi thought he could floor Modi with.