TMC could be vulnerable in over half of Bengal seats

Kolkata: Up against a strong challenge from the BJP and facing pockets of resistance from the Congress and the Left, the seatwise vulnerability index of West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) has gone up ahead of the coming Lok Sabha poll.

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the Trinamool’s main opponent in most of the state’s 42 seats, ensuring a direct fight between the two in over 75 per cent of the constituencies, political commentators feel up to 23-24 seats could have turned vulnerable for the Mamata Banerjee-led party.

However, the conservative estimate is considerably lower – 9-10.

The incumbency factor could be high after eight years in power, and there is bound to be a change in public perception ab­o­ut CM Banerjee as against the high ratings she enjoyed as a rabble-rousing opposition lea­der, Bimal Shankar Nanda, a pr­o­fessor of political science, said.

“In addition, being in power at the Centre, the BJP has become the centre of a centrepetal force, drawing anti-Trinamool leaders and workers who feel the saffron outfit can give them protection from physical violence and other forms of torture by the Trinamool,” Nanda told IANS. “I see close battles in 23-24 seats, from the Northern Himalayan Bengal, upto the Sundarban forests,” added Nanda, who teaches at the Charu Chandra College.

He said in the north, retaining Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar and Cooch Behar could be a tough call for the Trinamool, considering the BJP’s penetration in the tea gardens, Dooars region and the plains there. As far as Darjeeling is concerned, Nanda felt the BJP would do well to replace its incumbent MP and Union minister SS Ahluwalia with a Nepali-speaking leader.

Raiganj in North Dinajpur district presents interesting possibilities. While the BJP has increased its influence considerably in the area after building up an agitation over the killing of a student at Darivit, incombent MP Mohammad Salim of the CPI-M is known as a gritty fighter. “With the Congress leaving the seat for the CPI-M, it could be anybody’s game. Even the Trinamool may win if it can draw a sizeable chunk of Congress votes,” Nanda said.

According to Nanda, the BJP will give a good fight to the Trinamool in South Dinajpur’s Balurghat and Malda district’s Malada North, the Congress was comfortably placed in neighbouring Murshidabad district’s Baharampur and Jangipur was a 50:50 tussle between the Congress and the Trinamool. The CPI-M could have the upper hand in Murshidabad, provided Congress does not put up a dummy candidate.

The BJP was banking heavily on winning in its traditional stronghold of Krishnanagar, while the other Nadia district seat, Ranaghat, could also see a close fight between the saffron outfit and the Trinamool. After a good show in last year’s rural body polls, the BJP is likely to give the Trinamool a run for its money in Bankura and Bishnupur seats of Bankura district. Incidentally, in Bishnupur, incumbent Trinamool MP Soumitra Khan has defected to the BJP.