COVID-19 cases to drop from September: Survey

Experts feel drastic decline in growth rate and an improvement in doubling rate may get situation under control by end of October; they have observed such pattern in Mumbai, Delhi

Pune is one of the densely populated districts in the country when it comes to the concentration of COVID-19 cases.

This situation will not last long, believe various officials, who expect the voluminous cases to dip from the first week of September. This decline is expected to continue until it comes under control by end of October. The experts have mapped the predictions based on the persistently lowering of growth and doubling rates.

The premonitions have come at the time while the serological survey in the district being undertaken by National Institute of Virology and Savitri Phule Pune University. Experts are also comparing trends across cities, particularly Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi, where cases had spiked suddenly. Their present situation, however, offers remarkable contrast.

Pune district has 40,000+ active cases. More than 1.13 lakh people have tested positive — majority has battled the infection and few have passed away over four months. Somewhere after this pandemic had struck the district, a growth rate of 7.25 per cent was registered. It has come down to 2.21per cent. The doubling rate, which was 3.5 days at its worst, has drastically improved to 31.25 days. The recovery rate in Pune, which once was 14.08 per cent, has now gone up to 68.25 per cent. According to the epidemiological study, the growth rate is expected to further decline in Pune from September. Doubling rate is also expected to improve further.

Public health expert and state surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awte said the regional variation in cases of COVID-19 is expected to be seen from September with decline in the number of cases. “The serological survey to mark herd immunity among Pune’s population is in progress. From the samples taken in Mumbai and Delhi, 50 per cent and 25 per cent people respectively, were found to possess antibodies as they were infected by the virus at some point,” he said.

Moreover, the transmission dynamics of the virus is changing with decline in the number of cases in Pune. “Pune is leading on the testing front with a rate of more than 40,000 per million (of people) — the ratio in the state is 19,000 per million. There has been a decline in numbers since last week. A similar pattern was observed during the H1N1outbreak,” he said.

State director of health services Dr Archana Patil also attested to the improving condition based on the findings. “Many people are infected with COVID-19 and never develop any symptoms; thus, it can be said that they are immune. We saw this trait among people of Mumbai. Thane too is coming under control. The same is expected to be seen in Pune from September,” she said.

Whenever there is an epidemic, the disease causing it is found to be in the society for a year. When it reaches the peak, the number of infected populations starts to decline. At present, the number of cases is increasing in Nashik, Buldhana, Kolhapur, Aurangabad, and Nagpur.