Covid-19 cases will dip in MMR and Pune in ten days: Maharashtra minister Rajesh Tope

MUMBAI: A TOI analysis shows Ahmednagar, Kolhapur, Sangli, Beed, Nanded and Yavatmal districts – which have over 500 coronavirus cases – are growing at over 5% daily, nearly double the state average of 2.7%. Raigad, Nashik, Pune, each with over 10,000 cases, had daily average growth of below 5% between July 21 and July 28, but they too are recording growth above the state's average.

In the past week, Mumbai’s daily growth was the lowest among the state’s 35 districts. In absolute numbers though, Mumbai tops with 1.10lakh cases.


Public health minister Rajesh Tope on Tuesday said Pune and Mumbai Metropolitan Region, which are currently adding the most cases, should report a decline over the next 8-10 days as they approach a peak. Maharashtra, overall, will see a rise till August-end, following which a downward trend is likely to be seen, Tope predicted.

“Pune and cities from MMR that are rapidly adding cases will need some time to stabilise. Other parts of the state that are seeing relatively lesser cases now could see a rise over the next few weeks because of increased testing,” he said.

Epidemiologist Dr Jayaprakash Muliyal said Maharashtra may not be off the mark to think that it is close to a peak or in the midst of it. “Many areas in Maharashtra, including high density pockets have seen a peak, and are now witnessing a decline. For instance, Mumbai’s high density areas are now reporting lesser cases,” he said. The former principal of Christian Medical College, Vellore said every region will have its own trajectory. “Some regions, say rural areas, could peak after achieving herd immunity in 40%, while some regions may reach after 60%. But looking at Mumbai’s position, things look positive from here,” he said.

Dr Pradeep Awate, a surveillance officer, however said the state was seeing a mixed trend. “No two regions are behaving in a single predictable manner. Of 11 districts in Vidarbha, only Akola and Amravati’s cases and deaths can be compared with trends in northern Maharashtra. In Nagpur’s case too, the mortality rates are nowhere comparable to other parts. It has seen nearly 4,000 cases but less than 65 deaths,” he added.

Tope said a general observation is that once 20-25% of a city's population is infected, cases start dipping. Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the task force, concurred that parts of the state including Mumbai are past their peak.