Covid-19: Epidemic reaching its peak, next few weeks key, says expert

MUMBAI: Friday’s Covid-19 case tally in the city (1,751) took the total so far to 27,251. The Friday figure included 276 cases whose testing was done on May 17 but results added to the ICMR website now.

In the city, the case fatality rate was at 3.33%. Of the 27 dead, 22 patients had co-morbidities. The BMC daily update said 18 of the victims were men and nine women.

Health minister Rajesh Tope said numbers were rising as a large number of cases were coming from some densely-populated areas in the state, especially Mumbai, for which strict implementation of containment zone norms was required. “For every 10 lakh population, Maharashtra has 332 cases and 11 deaths. Most of these deaths were of people with other co-morbidities, but we want to reduce that too,” Tope said.

Only one of the city’s 27 victims on Friday was under 40 years of age, 13 were between 40 and 60 years old and 13 were over 60 years old.

The BMC update said a live dashboard for availability of beds is also functional to handle patient transfers.

In an indication that the Covid outbreak is heading towards a peak, the number of sealed buildings increased from 1,767 earlier this week to 2,275. Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the state task force on Covid-19, said, “It is most likely that the Covid epidemic is reaching its peak in the city, making the next few weeks very critical. We have to ensure the lockdown is successful so that the epidemic is flattened before monsoons set in.”

In a Facebook post, principal secretary Manisha Mhasikar, on deputation to BMC, wrote, “The doubling rate of the virus which forms the basis of all projections, assessments & evaluations continues to stay improved @ 13 days.” There were 12,689 cases on May 9, and there are 25,317 cases on May 21, indicating a doubling rate of 13 days. The city’s hotspot Dharavi reported one death and 53 new cases.

Thane and Kalyan-Dombivli registered their highest single-day count of 197 and 57 cases . In Kalyan, 7 children below 10 years of age were among the new cases. Navi Mumbai region saw 65 cases and 2 deaths. Nine deaths were reported in Pune, 8 in Jalgaon, 5 in Solapur, 3 each in Vasai-Virar and Aurangabad, 2 from Satara and 1 each from Malegaon, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Ulhasnagar, Panvel and Nagpur.