US may see net loss in immigration for the first time in 50 years
For the first time in over five decades, the United States could record more people leaving the country than entering, economists have warned. A forthcoming study from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute links this potential reversal in net migration to the immigration policies of the Trump administration, according to a report by The Washington Post.
The economists-Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, and Stan Veuger, project that the US may experience negative net migration in 2025. “For the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative,” said Edelberg. “It certainly would be the first time in more than 50 years.”
Several recent policy decisions have contributed to this outlook. These include stricter border enforcement, increased deportations, the rollback of temporary protections for certain migrants, and proposed limits on student visas. Legal immigration inflows have declined, and the foreign-born workforce has dropped by over one million since March, according to US Labour Department data.
The impact of these trends is already visible. Sectors that depend heavily on immigrant labour-such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality, are starting to feel the effects. In Florida, a senior living facility laid off several workers from Haiti and Cuba after their temporary work authorizations were revoked. “Their sudden removal is both destabilizing and deeply unjust,” said Rachel Blumberg, CEO of Sinai Residences. She expects labour costs to increase by $600,000 annually.
Economists caution that a prolonged decline in immigration could weigh on US economic growth and increase inflation risks, particularly as the domestic workforce ages. “You take those people away at a time when demographics are resulting in a lack of replacement for retired workers — all that’s a recipe for higher inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
The White House maintains that US citizens can fill workforce gaps. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labour force,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. However, recent labor data shows no significant wage increases in sectors facing shortages.
As per the Washington Post report, some migrants are choosing to leave the US on their own due to uncertainty around their legal status. One woman, who had entered under President Biden’s humanitarian parole program, returned to Venezuela fearing deportation. “It was a very difficult decision to leave,” she said. “But I was afraid that they would catch me and my husband and the kids would be left in school.”
The administration has introduced measures to speed up deportations, including a self-deportation incentive offering $1,000 and free flights. A pending spending bill could further increase funding for immigration enforcement.
Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Adriana Kugler, have noted the slowdown in immigration as a factor contributing to labour market tightening and potential inflationary pressures. Long-term, experts say continued reductions in migration may affect both economic output and federal revenue streams such as Social Security contributions.
The economists’ full report is expected to be released later this month.
The economists-Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, and Stan Veuger, project that the US may experience negative net migration in 2025. “For the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative,” said Edelberg. “It certainly would be the first time in more than 50 years.”
Several recent policy decisions have contributed to this outlook. These include stricter border enforcement, increased deportations, the rollback of temporary protections for certain migrants, and proposed limits on student visas. Legal immigration inflows have declined, and the foreign-born workforce has dropped by over one million since March, according to US Labour Department data.
The impact of these trends is already visible. Sectors that depend heavily on immigrant labour-such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality, are starting to feel the effects. In Florida, a senior living facility laid off several workers from Haiti and Cuba after their temporary work authorizations were revoked. “Their sudden removal is both destabilizing and deeply unjust,” said Rachel Blumberg, CEO of Sinai Residences. She expects labour costs to increase by $600,000 annually.
Economists caution that a prolonged decline in immigration could weigh on US economic growth and increase inflation risks, particularly as the domestic workforce ages. “You take those people away at a time when demographics are resulting in a lack of replacement for retired workers — all that’s a recipe for higher inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
The White House maintains that US citizens can fill workforce gaps. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labour force,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. However, recent labor data shows no significant wage increases in sectors facing shortages.
As per the Washington Post report, some migrants are choosing to leave the US on their own due to uncertainty around their legal status. One woman, who had entered under President Biden’s humanitarian parole program, returned to Venezuela fearing deportation. “It was a very difficult decision to leave,” she said. “But I was afraid that they would catch me and my husband and the kids would be left in school.”
The administration has introduced measures to speed up deportations, including a self-deportation incentive offering $1,000 and free flights. A pending spending bill could further increase funding for immigration enforcement.
Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Adriana Kugler, have noted the slowdown in immigration as a factor contributing to labour market tightening and potential inflationary pressures. Long-term, experts say continued reductions in migration may affect both economic output and federal revenue streams such as Social Security contributions.
The economists’ full report is expected to be released later this month.
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