CRISIL predicts additional RBI rate cut as inflation eases

New Delhi: Given the current inflation trajectory, headline inflation is projected to average 4 per cent this fiscal (FY26), from 4.6 per cent last fiscal, a Crisil report said on Friday.

Lower inflation keeps the window open for one more repo rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), apart from the 100 basis points cut announced so far, the report forecast.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation dropped to 2.8 per cent in May, the lowest reading since February 2019, from 3.2 per cent in April as food inflation continued to decline.

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Fuel and core inflation also softened. Food inflation fell to 1 per cent, the lowest since October 2021, from 1.8 per cent in April. Fuel inflation reversed trend and eased marginally to 2.8 per cent from 2.9 per cent.

Core inflation eased to 4.18 per cent from 4.23 per cent in April. Core inflation remained below its trend level (measured by the decadal average) of 4.9 per cent.

Among food items, pulses, vegetables and spices saw deflation, while cereals recorded lower inflation.

According to Crisil Intelligence—Research’s Thali Index released last week, the cost of both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis in May fell 6 per cent each on-year largely due to lower vegetable prices.

The Ministry of Agriculture’s Third Advance Estimates has indicated a robust rabi harvest with record wheat production.

“The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal monsoon of 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA). The rains would have a positive impact on the upcoming kharif season,” said the report.

Both the above will keep food inflation in check this fiscal, provided there are no monsoon disruptions. Though the monsoon has lost some momentum in June, with all-India cumulative rainfall deficiency at 34 per cent of LPA, it is the rains in July and August that matter the most for kharif crops.

On the energy front assuming no sustained impact of geopolitical tensions, Brent crude oil prices are projected to remain subdued, ranging between $65 and $70 per barrel in the current calendar year, which should help contain non-food inflation, the report mentioned.

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