Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Record 28 To 37% Excess Rainfall In June, With Above-Normal Rainfall Predicted In July

Bathinda: After a wetter-than-usual June, India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in July, with the national average expected to exceed 106% of the long period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast.

The LPA for July, based on data from 1971-2020, stands at 280.4 mm. The IMD said most regions will experience normal to above-normal rainfall in July, though parts of Northwest India are expected to see a shortfall. In June, the first month of the June-to-Sept southwest monsoon season, the country recorded 180 mm of rainfall — 8.9% above the monthly average of 165.3 mm. Northwest India saw the highest deviation, receiving 42.2% more rainfall than normal (111 mm versus 78.1 mm). Punjab reported 28% excess rainfall, Haryana 30%, and Himachal Pradesh 37%.

This wet trend follows an unusually rainy May as well. Punjab logged 102% more rainfall than average, while Haryana saw a dramatic 197% surplus. Himachal Pradesh recorded a modest 2% excess. June also witnessed the highest number of very heavy rainfall events in five years, with 432 weather stations reporting extreme downpours, surpassing 2023's tally of 429 similar events.

Meteorologists attribute the surge in rainfall to several atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI) remained neutral, while five low-pressure systems formed over the region during the month — higher significantly than the June average of 2.8 days, based on data from 1901 to 2018. These systems enhanced rainfall over Central India and along the west coast.

The monsoon trough also remained south of its normal position for much of the second half of June, concentrating rainfall over central, adjoining northwestern, and peninsular regions, while suppressing activity in the northeast. Looking ahead, the IMD said July's average maximum temperatures are expected to stay normal to below normal across most of India, except parts of the northwest where they may be higher. Minimum temperatures are also likely to remain within or below the average range, though some areas in the northwest may experience warmer nights.

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