China's economic recovery is facing headwinds as factories slow and consumer spending falters, with April data revealing a significant slowdown. Weak domestic demand, coupled with a challenging global environment marked by geopolitical conflicts and rising energy costs, is squeezing growth. While exports remain strong, they are insufficient to offset internal weaknesses, prompting concerns about the need for further policy support.

Air India has significantly reduced its flight schedule, cancelling around 200 weekly services from June to August due to soaring jet fuel prices and a depreciating rupee. These cuts follow previous reductions and aim to combat substantial losses. The airline is also exploring cost-saving measures like making meals optional on certain flights and unbundling lounge access for business class passengers.

Global condom giant Karex Bhd is hiking prices by up to 30% due to Iran war-induced supply chain disruptions and soaring raw material costs. Naphtha shortages are crippling production, leading to a worldwide shortage of essential goods, from condoms to plastic packaging, impacting public health initiatives, especially in developing nations.

The report said the impact of the conflict on India will be felt through four channels: (a) supply disruptions to oil, gas and fertilisers and more importantly, to exports as well, (b) higher import prices, (c) higher logistics costs (e.g., freight and insurance) and (d) a possible decline in remittances by Indians in the Gulf countries. (The slowdown in exports to Gulf countries may not be particularly consequential for overall exports.)

For the moment, it has managed to ensure that consumers are fully protected as the oil retailers and govt will split the burden of higher crude prices. For the oil marketing companies (OMCs), which will have to take a hit during the March quarter, the impact will not be significant if the Indian basket remains around the current level of $112 a barrel.

Many analysts are forecasting that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel for several weeks, pushing up the import bill and inflation. Dealers said that pressure on the rupee has been driven more by heavy foreign investor selloffs than by the West Asia conflict, with outflows crossing $13 billion this month, an all-time high.

As the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption, Saudi Arabia's East-West and UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipelines are crucial overland routes for crude oil. These pipelines, designed for emergencies, are now vital shock absorbers for the global economy, preventing a full-blown market panic despite not fully replacing Hormuz's capacity. Their continued operation is paramount.

Escalating US-Iran tensions are causing sharp volatility in oil markets and significantly impacting the aviation industry. Airlines are raising fares and fuel surcharges due to surging jet fuel costs and airspace restrictions, leading to flight cancellations and passenger disruptions. Oil prices are whipsawing amid uncertainty, with potential emergency reserve releases being considered.

Indian Railways is urging food vendors to switch to electric cooking methods like microwaves and induction, as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and LPG shortages, stemming from West Asia conflict, disrupt meal preparation. This impacts base kitchens supplying trains, prompting consideration of temporary suspension of cooked meal services and refunds for pre-booked meals.

India has secured approximately 30 million barrels of Russian crude following a US waiver, with refiners like Indian Oil and Reliance Industries swiftly acquiring stranded cargoes. This move comes as Middle East disruptions impact traditional oil flows, pushing India to seek alternative supplies. The US clarified the waiver is temporary, aimed at stabilizing global energy markets.