Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Forge Historic Defense Pact: What It Means for Regional Dynamics
With the signing of a significant mutual defense agreement on September 17, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have officially solidified a partnership that could yield substantial advantages for Islamabad. This pact is poised to enhance Pakistan's geopolitical influence in the Middle East, particularly amid rising tensions in the region. Recent military actions by India, including Operation Sindoor, and Israel's strikes on Hamas leaders in Qatar may have prompted this strategic alignment.
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, formalized during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's visit to Riyadh, establishes a framework where an attack on either nation is regarded as an attack on both.
Furthermore, reports suggest that this agreement encompasses Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, effectively integrating them into Saudi Arabia's defense strategy in times of crisis. This means that any Islamic nation entering a defense pact with Pakistan could indirectly gain access to nuclear deterrents. The agreement appears to bolster Pakistan's military confidence while also attracting new allies, with China remaining its primary supporter in military and intelligence matters. This indicates that Islamic nations aligning with Pakistan may also benefit from Chinese defense technology.
The timing of this pact is particularly advantageous for Pakistan, as its relations with the United States have improved since President Donald Trump's return to office. Saudi Arabia has historically funded Pakistan's nuclear program, and this agreement formalizes their understanding that Pakistan's nuclear capabilities could be utilized if necessary. The public declaration of this collective security pact represents a significant financial milestone for Pakistan, which is currently facing economic challenges. It also signals a shift in Saudi Arabia's security strategy, as the kingdom seeks to diversify its alliances and reduce its reliance on the US for security.
Israel's recent military actions in Qatar, a US ally, have likely shaken Saudi Arabia's confidence in American support, especially given the lack of US condemnation for Israel's incursions. This situation has raised concerns about the reliability of US security assurances to Gulf nations.
As the conflict in Gaza escalates and Iran-backed groups assert their military presence, Saudi Arabia appears to view Pakistan as a crucial security partner.
This development places India in a precarious position, particularly as it has been promoting its successful diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making frequent visits to Arab nations.
For Pakistan, this agreement serves as a strategic deterrent against India in potential military confrontations, especially in light of cross-border terrorism. Following the Pahalgam massacre, India has emphasized its capability for surgical strikes against terrorist networks in Pakistan, asserting it will continue such operations in response to terror threats. According to the pact, Saudi Arabia will regard any Indian incursions into Pakistani territory as an attack on itself. India's foreign affairs officials are currently assessing the implications of this agreement, both strategically and economically. Notably, Saudi Arabia is India's second-largest trading partner, while India ranks as the fifth-largest trading partner for Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom being a significant crude oil supplier.
This raises the question of whether Saudi Arabia will prioritize its economic relationship with India over its defense commitments to Pakistan if such a choice arises.
In essence, Saudi Arabia must navigate the balance between the security assurances provided by Pakistan and the economic advantages offered by India, which includes a substantial expatriate community. Additionally, the impact of the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact on India's relations with other Muslim-majority nations in the Arab world, such as Oman, the UAE, and Qatar, remains to be seen. These countries may not view India through the lens of the India-Pakistan conflict.
The 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, carried out by Pakistani operatives, were condemned by many Arab nations. India can only hope that the solidarity of the Arab world with Pakistan, rooted in shared Islamic faith, does not adversely affect its diplomatic relations.