Bihar Caste Survey Data Indicates BJP's Dependency On Alliances For 2024 Lok Sabha Polls

If the Bihar caste headcount data is accurate, the BJP will have to rely on a miracle to ensure that its own support among the "upper castes" and the caste-pull of the leaders of its alliance partners align with NDA candidates during the 2024 parliamentary elections.

The state has 40 parliamentary constituencies.

Today, the BJP is aiming to replicate its 2019 performance when, in collaboration with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in the NDA, as well as the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) under the leadership of Ram Vilas Paswan, it secured victory in 39 seats.

However, the recent controversy stirred by Anand Mohan, the former leader of the Bihar People's Party (BPP) who was convicted in the 1994 murder of the then Gopalganj District Magistrate G. Krishnaiya, regarding the recitation of the poem "Thakur Ka Kuan" by RJD MP Manoj Kumar Jha on the floor of the Rajya Sabha, has set Brahmins and Thakurs/Rajputs in Bihar on a collision course. Observers believe that the BJP will need to employ creative political strategies to manage the situation.

As expected, the recurring statement from senior BJP politicians, including its state chief Samrat Chaudhary, remained straightforward: “We will first study and analyse the details of the caste-based headcount, and then make our statement on policy perspectives.”

Currently, according to party sources, the state leadership is in communication with leaders such as Union Home Minister Amit Shah regarding this issue, and they anticipate that the party's central leadership may take action regarding the recommendations of the Rohini Commission regarding the equitable allocation of reservations/quotas among backward castes and EBCs in central government positions.

Even at first glance, the BJP's discomfort serves as a source of satisfaction for the six-party grand alliance, which includes the JD(U), RJD, Congress, and three Left parties.

Their challenge comes from AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, whose party secured victory in six assembly seats during the 2020 assembly elections. Given his polarising ideology, Owaisi's party could potentially attract a portion of their Muslim support base. It's worth noting that later on, five of the six AIMIM MLAs joined the RJD.

In the circumstances, in Bihar, BJP might have to walk the extra mile to win over other smaller parties not in NDA, like Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) led by former minister and MLC from the BJP quota Mukesh Sahani. The count of his caste-based kindred groups, like the Kewats (boatmen) and Mallahs (fishermen), is 3.3%.

BJP might also have to draw up a strategy to build better chemistry with its supporting parties.

Also, BSP chief Mayawati, whose support lies among the Chamar and Mochi castes from the SC segment, will also queer the pitch for BJP. She is outside NDA, and caste-based support for her party stands at 5.3% of the total population.