Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysing The Hit-And-Miss Nature Of Poll Predictions

The accuracy of polls in predicting the outcomes of Lok Sabha Elections has been a mixed bag, as noted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Their analysis indicates that these polls and seat predictions have experienced both successes and failures.

Taking a retrospective glance at past Lok Sabha elections, the CSDS conducted a detailed analysis spanning from 1998 to 2009.

With a political party needing to secure 272 seats out of the total 543 to gain a majority in the Lok Sabha, the stakes are undeniably high.

Their report divulged that pre-election opinion polls for the 1998 Lok Sabha Elections were nearly accurate, whereas predictions for the 1999 elections slightly overestimated the performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The BJP's ascent to power at the Centre in 1996 was followed by its retention of power in the 1998 and 1999 general elections. However, the 2004 Lok Sabha polls delivered a surprise as the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was vastly underestimated by opinion and exit polls. Despite predictions favoring the NDA, it was the Congress that formed the national government.

In 2009, opinion polls once again failed to foresee the Congress-led UPA's victory, missing its significant surge from 222 seats in 2004 to 262 seats.

Moving on to the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the NDA was expected to secure between 257 and 340 seats. However, the actual tally surpassed expectations, reaching over 336 seats. Some polls accurately projected the Congress's historic low tally of 44 seats, while the UPA clinched a total of 59 seats.

Subsequently, in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, despite predictions of around 285 seats for the NDA, the BJP-led alliance secured a landslide victory, bagging 353 seats, with the BJP alone claiming 303 seats. This outcome defied many expectations, with the Congress winning 52 seats and the UPA 91.

As for the anticipated 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, most pollsters foresee a third term for the BJP-led NDA at the Centre, although they may fall short of their ambitious 400+ target.

The accuracy of these forecasts will only be known on June 4, when the results are announced following the seven-phase voting process commencing on April 19.

Distinguishing between exit polls and opinion polls is crucial. Exit polls survey voters immediately after they leave polling stations on election day, while opinion polls gauge voter sentiment before voting takes place.

CSDS is credited as the pioneer of exit polls in India, having developed the exercise in the 1960s. Media poll surveys emerged in the 1980s, with renowned psephologist Prannoy Roy collaborating with David Butler.