"Geopolitical Earthquake": UAE quits OPEC to defy Saudi energy dominance, says analysis

Abu Dhabi [UAE], May 2 (ANI): In a move that has been described by analysts as a "watershed moment" for West Asia, the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday announced its withdrawal from the OPEC and OPEC+ groupings, marking a definitive end to decades of economic deference to Saudi Arabia.
A new strategic analysis by PSIFOS Consulting Group has characterised the decision not as a mere technical adjustment but as a "political rebellion" against Riyadh's dominance over regional energy policy.The move signals a fundamental shift in Emirati foreign policy, as the nation charts an independent course orientated toward the United States, Israel, and rapidly growing Asian markets.For years, tension has simmered within the OPEC+ framework between the region's two largest economies.

The Emirati strategy is to prioritise market share over price, as it has a more diversified economy and a low production cost. Analysts say Abu Dhabi seeks to maximise sales volumes, even if it means accepting modestly lower prices.
"The UAE withdrawal marks the formal conclusion of its economic deference to Saudi-led policies," the PSIFOS report states, noting that the relationship has evolved from a close alliance into "intense economic competition".
A primary driver behind the exit is the UAE's fear of "stranded assets"--oil reserves that may lose their economic value before they can be extracted. With global fossil fuel demand projected to peak by 2040, Abu Dhabi is engaged in a race to monetise its resources while they still hold significant value.
The UAE has already invested over USD 122 billion to expand its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2030.However, OPEC's restrictive quotas have historically capped Emirati output at between 2.6 million and 3.1 million barrels per day.
By exiting the cartel, the UAE can finally unlock its massive infrastructure investments and generate the liquidity needed to fund its own transition toward a green economy, including hubs for hydrogen and renewable energy.
Furthermore, Abu Dhabi intends to establish its "Murban" crude as a global pricing benchmark to compete with Brent and WTI. This ambition requires a level of supply flexibility that OPEC's rigid quota system simply cannot accommodate.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump welcomed the UAE's decision to exit the OPEC and OPEC+ alliance, saying the move could help bring down global oil and gas prices."That's a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down. They have it all. He's a great leader, actually. I'm okay. They're having some problems in OPEC," Trump said as he referred to UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Analysts say the UAE's exit effectively dismantles the Arab-Russian consensus on oil pricing and erodes the bloc's ability to "weaponise" energy supplies.
The UAE is now expected to bypass OPEC's collective pricing mechanisms to negotiate direct, preferential supply agreements with China and India--the shifting "centre of gravity" for global oil demand.Within the Gulf, the withdrawal leaves Saudi Arabia increasingly isolated. Historically, the UAE acted as a counterbalance to Russia's frequent overproduction. Without Abu Dhabi's moderating presence, analysts warn that Riyadh may be forced into a "destabilising price war" to enforce discipline among remaining members.
The PSIFOS Consulting Group report concludes that the UAE's departure risks fracturing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into competing blocs. "This is not merely a technical adjustment," the analysis concludes. "It is an earthquake that reshapes the geopolitical architecture of Gulf energy relations... with consequences that will reverberate across regional politics, global markets, and international alliances for years to come."
Meanwhile, another report by ICICI Securities noted that while the immediate impact of the UAE's exit from OPEC may remain limited due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict in West Asia, the long-term outlook points to increased production from the UAE.
The country has already built significant spare capacity, which could enter global markets once logistical constraints ease.
"We believe this move may help soften prices in the longer term, although volatility in the markets may spike owing to lower cohesive supply management from OPEC," the report said.
The report also flagged broader implications for the cartel, suggesting that the UAE's exit could prompt other member nations to reassess the benefits of remaining within OPEC, particularly amid declining revenues and geopolitical disruptions. (ANI)