Will market bounce back after 18-month lull?
Will share market bounce back after a long lull period? It is the questions most investors have long been asking for. Edelweiss Mutual Fund chief operating officer (CEO) Radhika Gupta has shared interesting data that can give some hope to such investors.
In a tweet on X and in a LinkedIn message, Gupta has presented 13 instances each after the year 2000 when the share market (mainly the Nifty 50 index) bounced back after a lull period of 18 months.
The data presents the returns of the next 12 to 36 months after 18 months of lull periods in the share market.
Gupta also presents the data from August 31, 2024, to January 31, 2026, showing that the Nifty 50 index has delivered a modest 0.34% return during that time frame. In the end, she leaves her message with a question mark, anticipating if a similar recovery is in the offing.
Gupta writes in her tweet, “The market hasn’t made money for 18 months.
“Since I am hearing it quite a bit, a perspective on what historically followed the dead 18-month period.”
With the title of ‘Build wealth by thinking beyond the short term’, Gupta writes When Nifty stagnated for 18 months in the past on several occasions, how did the next 3 and 5 years play out. She presents this data then-
We also tracked how key indices performed from August 31, 2024, to January 31, 2026.
Performance of leading indices (from Aug 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2026)
Let’s find out some interesting insights from Gupta’s data of the 18-month stagnant phases of the Indian market
Average 1-year return after 18-month stagnation
Of the time frames, Gupta has shared, the average 1-year return after 18 months of market stagnation has been 30%.
Average 3-year return after 18-month stagnation
But if we look at the average return of three years following 18 months of market stagnation periods, it has been a whopping absolute return of 76%.
Highest and lowest 1-year returns after 18-month stagnation
The highest has been 81% following the phase of October 31, 2001, to March 31, 2023. The lowest was 1% following the slump from April 30, 2011, to September 30, 2012.
Highest and lowest 3-year returns after 18-month stagnation
The highest absolute return was 248% following the 18-month period of October 31, 2001, to March 31, 2023.
The lowest absolute return was 12% following the period of April 30, 2008, to September 30, 2009.
Lowest market stagnation point
The return from February 28, 2011, to July 31, 2012, was -1.95, which was worst of all the phases.
Highest market stagnation point
Of all 13 stagnant periods Gupta has highlighted, the best was from July 31, 2001, to December 31, 2002, when the market delivered a 1.92% return.
Range of 1-year return after 18-month stagnation
The market gave 1-year returns in the range of 1% to 81% in all the 14 phases studied.
Range of 3-year return after 18-month stagnation
The market gave 3-year returns in the range of 12% to 248% in all the 14 phases studied.
Interesting insights from Edelweiss data (shared by Radhika Gupta)
Will the share market bounce back after 18-month stagnation?
Gupta has left that column with a question mark for the simple reason no one can’t predict future returns on the basis of past records.
Past trends and data provide us strong reference points, but the factors that affect the share market can be different in different times. The current poor share market performance is attributed to geopolitical tensions, Russia-Ukraine War, Iran-Israel conflict, USA’s tariffs on India, among others.
Many investors have been eagerly waiting for the share market to bounce back and deliver strong returns, but it will happen because similar things have happened in the past is mere an expectation.
In a tweet on X and in a LinkedIn message, Gupta has presented 13 instances each after the year 2000 when the share market (mainly the Nifty 50 index) bounced back after a lull period of 18 months.
The data presents the returns of the next 12 to 36 months after 18 months of lull periods in the share market.
Gupta also presents the data from August 31, 2024, to January 31, 2026, showing that the Nifty 50 index has delivered a modest 0.34% return during that time frame. In the end, she leaves her message with a question mark, anticipating if a similar recovery is in the offing.
Gupta writes in her tweet, “The market hasn’t made money for 18 months.
“Since I am hearing it quite a bit, a perspective on what historically followed the dead 18-month period.”
With the title of ‘Build wealth by thinking beyond the short term’, Gupta writes When Nifty stagnated for 18 months in the past on several occasions, how did the next 3 and 5 years play out. She presents this data then-
We also tracked how key indices performed from August 31, 2024, to January 31, 2026.
Performance of leading indices (from Aug 31, 2024 to Jan 31, 2026)
Let’s find out some interesting insights from Gupta’s data of the 18-month stagnant phases of the Indian market
Average 1-year return after 18-month stagnation
Of the time frames, Gupta has shared, the average 1-year return after 18 months of market stagnation has been 30%.
Average 3-year return after 18-month stagnation
But if we look at the average return of three years following 18 months of market stagnation periods, it has been a whopping absolute return of 76%.
Highest and lowest 1-year returns after 18-month stagnation
The highest has been 81% following the phase of October 31, 2001, to March 31, 2023. The lowest was 1% following the slump from April 30, 2011, to September 30, 2012.
Highest and lowest 3-year returns after 18-month stagnation
The highest absolute return was 248% following the 18-month period of October 31, 2001, to March 31, 2023.
The lowest absolute return was 12% following the period of April 30, 2008, to September 30, 2009.
Lowest market stagnation point
The return from February 28, 2011, to July 31, 2012, was -1.95, which was worst of all the phases.
Highest market stagnation point
Of all 13 stagnant periods Gupta has highlighted, the best was from July 31, 2001, to December 31, 2002, when the market delivered a 1.92% return.
Range of 1-year return after 18-month stagnation
The market gave 1-year returns in the range of 1% to 81% in all the 14 phases studied.
Range of 3-year return after 18-month stagnation
The market gave 3-year returns in the range of 12% to 248% in all the 14 phases studied.
Interesting insights from Edelweiss data (shared by Radhika Gupta)
Will the share market bounce back after 18-month stagnation?
Gupta has left that column with a question mark for the simple reason no one can’t predict future returns on the basis of past records.
Past trends and data provide us strong reference points, but the factors that affect the share market can be different in different times. The current poor share market performance is attributed to geopolitical tensions, Russia-Ukraine War, Iran-Israel conflict, USA’s tariffs on India, among others.
Many investors have been eagerly waiting for the share market to bounce back and deliver strong returns, but it will happen because similar things have happened in the past is mere an expectation.
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