The 12-month deadline: Is AI about to wipe out white-collar jobs?
India’s IT sector is staring at one of its most turbulent phases in recent memory. A sharp correction in technology stocks has been triggered by rising fears that artificial intelligence (AI) could render many core roles redundant. At the heart of this anxiety is a stark warning from AI leaders -- a 12-month deadline may loom over large swathes of white-collar employment.
Death knell sounding for jobs?
The most dramatic articulation of this disruption has come from Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI. In a recent interview with The Financial Times, Suleyman argued that most tasks performed in white-collar professions could be fully automated within the next 12 to 18 months.
According to him, office-based roles such as lawyers, accountants and project managers, the jobs that primarily involve working at a computer, are particularly vulnerable. He claimed that existing AI models can already code better than the vast majority of human programmers, “maybe even all of them to date.” This is not a distant, theoretical forecast. It is presented as an imminent transformation, unfolding in real time.
Suleyman described Microsoft’s work on what he termed “professional grade AGI”, which means AI systems engineered to carry out everyday knowledge-worker tasks with reliability and scale. He suggested that a significant portion of computer-based office work could be automated in the next year to year and a half.
He also offered a striking analogy about the future of AI model creation. Building AI models, he said, could soon become as routine and accessible as launching a podcast or writing a blog. Rather than remaining the exclusive domain of specialist engineers, institutions and individuals would be able to design AI tailored to their own operational needs. Within two to three years, he projected, AI agents could manage complex workflows across large organisations, coordinating tasks that currently require teams of professionals.
Also Read | Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman predicts widespread white-collar job automation within 12-18 months
Workforce cuts and corporate pivots
These predictions are not occurring in isolation. They coincide with a broader wave of AI-driven restructuring across global corporations. US-based cloud services company Salesforce reportedly eliminated up to 1,000 roles this month as part of a more aggressive pivot toward artificial intelligence. Similar workforce reductions have been reported at major technology and logistics firms in recent weeks, reinforcing investor concerns that automation is accelerating faster than labour markets can adjust.
In India, where IT services form a critical pillar of the economy and employ millions, such developments have amplified market anxieties. Investors fear that if AI can independently code, manage workflows and deliver enterprise solutions, then traditional outsourcing models may face structural disruption.
“Software engineering will be obsolete”
Adding to the sense of urgency, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, made an even more direct claim at the World Economic Forum last month, setting off a 12-month countdown. He said software engineering as a profession could become obsolete within 12 months.
Amodei argued that the defining risk is not merely job loss but the pace of progress. In just two years, AI systems have advanced from struggling to produce a single line of functional code to generating entire programs used internally by engineers at his own firm. The speed of capability expansion, he suggested, makes workforce displacement a near-term reality rather than a distant possibility.
The transformation inside Anthropic itself illustrates this shift. At the Cisco AI Summit recently, the company’s Labs chief, Mike Krieger, told Jeetu Patel of Cisco that the company’s AI model Claude is now effectively writing its own updates. “Claude is now writing Claude,” he said, describing development processes where most products are now almost entirely generated by the AI system itself, supported by carefully constructed scaffolding to ensure trust and oversight.
This internal reliance on AI for software creation strengthens the argument that coding, once considered a future-proof skill, may face rapid commoditisation.
Also Read | Is ‘AI-washing’ behind new wave of tech layoffs?
JPMorgan’s ‘plumbers of the tech world’ thesis
Yet, not everyone shares the apocalyptic view. A recent report by JPMorgan argues that while AI fears are driving the deep correction in IT stocks, the sector is unlikely to collapse.
The brokerage characterises IT services firms as the “plumbers of the tech world.” Even if tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code and its Cowork plugin accelerate complex tasks and enable agentic AI to write substantially more software, JPMorgan cautions against assuming such tools will automatically achieve enterprise-grade reliability across every function.
Enterprise environments are shaped by legacy systems, regulatory constraints, security protocols and what the report calls “tribal enterprise context”, the nuanced operational knowledge that IT services vendors have accumulated over decades. According to JPMorgan, even if enterprise software or SaaS platforms are rewritten on a bespoke basis by AI agents, they will still require extensive integration, implementation and operational support to function effectively and to minimise what it terms “AI slop.”
The bank foresees partnerships between AI tool developers and IT services firms, potentially creating entirely new areas of work. In this view, AI does not eliminate the need for IT services but it transforms and possibly expands it, shifting the focus toward orchestration, governance and systems integration.
IBM’s contrarian hiring bet
A contrasting corporate response has emerged from IBM. According to a report by Bloomberg, IBM plans to triple its entry-level hiring in the United States in 2026, even amid mounting concerns about automation.
IBM’s Chief Human Resources Officer, Nickel LaMoreaux, announced at the Leading with AI Summit in New York that the expansion would span multiple departments. “And yes, it’s for all these jobs that we’re being told AI can do,” she said, underscoring the company’s commitment to investing in human capital despite automation pressures.
IBM has redesigned junior job descriptions to reflect AI’s growing capabilities. Entry-level software developers, for instance, now spend less time writing routine code, tasks that AI can handle, and more time engaging directly with customers. In HR, junior staff focus on stepping in when chatbots fall short, correcting outputs and collaborating with managers rather than processing every query themselves.
LaMoreaux acknowledged that AI can now perform most tasks associated with entry-level jobs from two to three years ago. However, she argued that cutting back on early-career recruitment to save costs could backfire. Without a steady pipeline of junior hires, organisations risk a future shortage of mid-level managers, forcing them into expensive and time-consuming talent poaching.
Disruption or transition?
These developments present a stark yet complex picture. On one side are technologists predicting that within 12 to 18 months, AI will automate the bulk of white-collar computer-based tasks, potentially rendering professions like software engineering obsolete. On the other are financial analysts and corporate leaders who argue that while task automation will accelerate, the broader ecosystem of enterprise technology will still depend heavily on human expertise.
For India’s IT sector, the stakes are particularly high. If AI can independently design, code and deploy solutions, the traditional labour-arbitrage model may face structural pressure. Yet if AI-generated software requires large-scale integration, contextual adaptation and governance, IT services firms could reposition themselves as indispensable orchestrators of AI-driven systems.
The looming 12-month horizon, therefore, may not mark the end of white-collar employment but it could signal the end of its current form. The year 2026 will likely determine whether AI becomes a wholesale substitute for human knowledge work or a force that radically reshapes, rather than eliminates, the white collar workers.
Death knell sounding for jobs?
The most dramatic articulation of this disruption has come from Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI. In a recent interview with The Financial Times, Suleyman argued that most tasks performed in white-collar professions could be fully automated within the next 12 to 18 months.
According to him, office-based roles such as lawyers, accountants and project managers, the jobs that primarily involve working at a computer, are particularly vulnerable. He claimed that existing AI models can already code better than the vast majority of human programmers, “maybe even all of them to date.” This is not a distant, theoretical forecast. It is presented as an imminent transformation, unfolding in real time.
Suleyman described Microsoft’s work on what he termed “professional grade AGI”, which means AI systems engineered to carry out everyday knowledge-worker tasks with reliability and scale. He suggested that a significant portion of computer-based office work could be automated in the next year to year and a half.
He also offered a striking analogy about the future of AI model creation. Building AI models, he said, could soon become as routine and accessible as launching a podcast or writing a blog. Rather than remaining the exclusive domain of specialist engineers, institutions and individuals would be able to design AI tailored to their own operational needs. Within two to three years, he projected, AI agents could manage complex workflows across large organisations, coordinating tasks that currently require teams of professionals.
Also Read | Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman predicts widespread white-collar job automation within 12-18 months
Workforce cuts and corporate pivots
These predictions are not occurring in isolation. They coincide with a broader wave of AI-driven restructuring across global corporations. US-based cloud services company Salesforce reportedly eliminated up to 1,000 roles this month as part of a more aggressive pivot toward artificial intelligence. Similar workforce reductions have been reported at major technology and logistics firms in recent weeks, reinforcing investor concerns that automation is accelerating faster than labour markets can adjust.
In India, where IT services form a critical pillar of the economy and employ millions, such developments have amplified market anxieties. Investors fear that if AI can independently code, manage workflows and deliver enterprise solutions, then traditional outsourcing models may face structural disruption.
“Software engineering will be obsolete”
Adding to the sense of urgency, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, made an even more direct claim at the World Economic Forum last month, setting off a 12-month countdown. He said software engineering as a profession could become obsolete within 12 months.
Amodei argued that the defining risk is not merely job loss but the pace of progress. In just two years, AI systems have advanced from struggling to produce a single line of functional code to generating entire programs used internally by engineers at his own firm. The speed of capability expansion, he suggested, makes workforce displacement a near-term reality rather than a distant possibility.
The transformation inside Anthropic itself illustrates this shift. At the Cisco AI Summit recently, the company’s Labs chief, Mike Krieger, told Jeetu Patel of Cisco that the company’s AI model Claude is now effectively writing its own updates. “Claude is now writing Claude,” he said, describing development processes where most products are now almost entirely generated by the AI system itself, supported by carefully constructed scaffolding to ensure trust and oversight.
This internal reliance on AI for software creation strengthens the argument that coding, once considered a future-proof skill, may face rapid commoditisation.
Also Read | Is ‘AI-washing’ behind new wave of tech layoffs?
JPMorgan’s ‘plumbers of the tech world’ thesis
Yet, not everyone shares the apocalyptic view. A recent report by JPMorgan argues that while AI fears are driving the deep correction in IT stocks, the sector is unlikely to collapse.
The brokerage characterises IT services firms as the “plumbers of the tech world.” Even if tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code and its Cowork plugin accelerate complex tasks and enable agentic AI to write substantially more software, JPMorgan cautions against assuming such tools will automatically achieve enterprise-grade reliability across every function.
Enterprise environments are shaped by legacy systems, regulatory constraints, security protocols and what the report calls “tribal enterprise context”, the nuanced operational knowledge that IT services vendors have accumulated over decades. According to JPMorgan, even if enterprise software or SaaS platforms are rewritten on a bespoke basis by AI agents, they will still require extensive integration, implementation and operational support to function effectively and to minimise what it terms “AI slop.”
The bank foresees partnerships between AI tool developers and IT services firms, potentially creating entirely new areas of work. In this view, AI does not eliminate the need for IT services but it transforms and possibly expands it, shifting the focus toward orchestration, governance and systems integration.
IBM’s contrarian hiring bet
A contrasting corporate response has emerged from IBM. According to a report by Bloomberg, IBM plans to triple its entry-level hiring in the United States in 2026, even amid mounting concerns about automation.
IBM’s Chief Human Resources Officer, Nickel LaMoreaux, announced at the Leading with AI Summit in New York that the expansion would span multiple departments. “And yes, it’s for all these jobs that we’re being told AI can do,” she said, underscoring the company’s commitment to investing in human capital despite automation pressures.
IBM has redesigned junior job descriptions to reflect AI’s growing capabilities. Entry-level software developers, for instance, now spend less time writing routine code, tasks that AI can handle, and more time engaging directly with customers. In HR, junior staff focus on stepping in when chatbots fall short, correcting outputs and collaborating with managers rather than processing every query themselves.
LaMoreaux acknowledged that AI can now perform most tasks associated with entry-level jobs from two to three years ago. However, she argued that cutting back on early-career recruitment to save costs could backfire. Without a steady pipeline of junior hires, organisations risk a future shortage of mid-level managers, forcing them into expensive and time-consuming talent poaching.
Disruption or transition?
These developments present a stark yet complex picture. On one side are technologists predicting that within 12 to 18 months, AI will automate the bulk of white-collar computer-based tasks, potentially rendering professions like software engineering obsolete. On the other are financial analysts and corporate leaders who argue that while task automation will accelerate, the broader ecosystem of enterprise technology will still depend heavily on human expertise.
For India’s IT sector, the stakes are particularly high. If AI can independently design, code and deploy solutions, the traditional labour-arbitrage model may face structural pressure. Yet if AI-generated software requires large-scale integration, contextual adaptation and governance, IT services firms could reposition themselves as indispensable orchestrators of AI-driven systems.
The looming 12-month horizon, therefore, may not mark the end of white-collar employment but it could signal the end of its current form. The year 2026 will likely determine whether AI becomes a wholesale substitute for human knowledge work or a force that radically reshapes, rather than eliminates, the white collar workers.
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