US-Canada trade tension spike again as Trump warns of 'very severe tariffs' on fertilizers to protect domestic production amid rising farm costs

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2025 has been a year marked by deep economic uncertainty, from rising production costs to instability due to heavy tariffs, and US President Donald Trump is now signalling he may escalate the pressure.

Trump signalled that he is ready to slap “very severe tariffs” on fertiliser imported from Canada, escalating a trade fight that has already driven up costs for American farmers. Trump made the comments during a White House roundtable, where he also announced a US$12-billion tariff relief fund to help farmers facing rising seed and fertiliser costs driven by his global trade war.
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“A lot of (fertiliser) does come in from Canada, and so we’ll end up putting very severe tariffs on that, if we have to, because that’s the way you want to bolster here,” Trump said.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said multiple federal agencies are working to reshore fertiliser production and are instructing manufacturers and other industrial players to reduce prices.

“The president has been very unequivocal in saying we have to figure out why all these input costs are skyrocketing,” Rollins said.

US growers heavily rely on Saskatchewan’s potash for potassium-rich fertiliser. According to Fertiliser Canada, over 90 per cent of Canadian fertiliser is exported, and the US takes well over half.

Trump initially applied a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods, but scaled fertiliser duties back to 10 per cent after pushback from farm-state Republicans such as Iowa’s Sen. Chuck Grassley.

By March, farmers on both sides of the border said fertiliser prices were rising under Trump’s trade war. Ontario Premier Doug Ford floated using a potash export ban as a bargaining tool with the US, a suggestion opposed by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.

Nutrien, the Saskatchewan potash producer, announced it will locate its new global export terminal in Washington state rather than British Columbia, a move that has angered Canadian lawmakers.

Rollins said Monday that US$11 billion of the new aid package will be directed to row-crop farmers by Feb. 28, while the remaining US$1 billion for fruits, vegetables and other crops is being held back as final details are completed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the assistance as a “liquidity bridge during a period of adjustment,” meant to support farmers until the benefits of Trump’s trade deals and related policies take hold.

“This relief will provide much-needed certainty to farmers as they get this year’s harvest to market and look ahead to next year’s crops, and it’ll help them continue their efforts to lower food prices for American families,” Trump said.

The administration says it is reviewing rising costs for farm products and equipment, as soybean growers brace for a third straight year of losses in 2025, according to the American Soybean Association.

Trump delivered about US$23 billion in farm aid during his first term, and payments are expected to reach nearly US$40 billion this year, though net farm income could plunge by more than US$30 billion in 2026 as support falls and crop prices stay low, according to the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.