Signals for 2026: Spotting the shifts before they become headlines
For Indian startups, 2026 will be an inflection point where experiments of the years past create systems on which the future is built. There are patterns across data, founder behaviour, and market structure, elevated by the evolution of AI, that point to this.
1. Bharat-first products
What’s happening
UPI proved India will embrace the speed and comfort of digital payments. AI-enabled Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) will now help develop and scale Bharat-first products.
Why it matters
Education, entertainment, healthcare, legal support, financial literacy, etc., will scale in native languages and different formats, unlocking profit pools that were previously unreachable.
Why now
Payment rails solved monetisation. AI solves relevance at scale, so founders can build better for Bharat.
2. Personalised finance
What’s happening
2025 was the year Indian finance experimented with AI. 2026 will be the year AI personalises finance. The technology can help unlock insights into decades of behavioural data made available by the Account Aggregator system.
Why it matters
“A relationship manager for every Indian” will become a reality, transitioning from segments to persons, with customised loans, dynamic pricing, contextual nudges, and real-time recommendations tailored to individuals.
Why now
The Account Aggregator system along with AI will let BFSI giants finally unlock personalisation at scale.
3. AI-first financial distribution
What’s happening
The distribution economics in finance is breaking. AI is stepping in, enabling spending with intelligence.
Why it matters
Fi, OneCard, and Cred use AI to deliver differentiated, data-driven experiences, lowering CAC (customer acquisition cost), increasing loyalty.
4. AI moves into the middle office
What’s happening
AI in BFSI started with chatbots. The next shift will revolutionise the middle office.
Why it matters
Underwriting still runs on Excel. Collections still rely on people. Claims still take weeks. These workflows decide cost-to-income ratios. AI is rebuilding them efficiently.
Why now
Front-end gains are capped. Automation unlocks efficiency gains from the core business model.
5. Finance fraud’s gone hair-on-fire
What’s happening
Rs 36,014 crore lost to bank fraud in FY25, up 3X year-on-year.
Why it matters
Fraud, risk, compliance are no longer side quests. AI detects anomalies across billions of transactions, links, and other data, automates KYC / AML (anti-money laundering), and identifies mule networks.
Why now
The ROI is immediate. Every fraud prevented is margin protected.
6. A CFO for every SMB
What’s happening
If 2025 was about copilots for coders, 2026 will be about copilots for finance teams.
Why it matters
AI automates accounting, reconciliation, (monthly / quarterly) closures, FP&A (financial planning and analysis), tax, and treasury. India’s 60 million SMBs get CFO-level precision without CFO-level costs.
Why now
Earlier SMB software wasn’t quite accurate. Agentic AI has helped make this efficient.
7. AI learns to work
What’s happening
2025 was the year AI learned to talk. 2026 will be the year it learns to work.
Why it matters
Computer-use agents now click, edit, and act inside ERPs, CRMs, and spreadsheets, automating where the enterprise workforce spends the most time.
8. India, the world’s AI implementation backbone
What’s happening
As AI moves from demos to deployment, implementation becomes the bottleneck. FDEs (forward deployed engineers) who integrate and customise AI solutions are coming.
Why it matters
AI adoption depends on integration, ontology (the structure that contextualises the knowledge), compliance, and workflow stitching. This is where India’s services DNA excels. FDEs and AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS) will be the next export engine.
Why now
The AI moat will be execution: with deep talent pools, India can lead here.
9. Indian founders go global
What’s happening
In global markets, SaaS showed the way; consumer, B2B, and manufacturing are following.
Why it matters
India has become the world’s harshest proving ground. If you can win here, you’re built for anywhere. AI has flattened access to technology, while China-plus-one and export tailwinds are making Indian businesses global by default.
Why now
Access to AI models along with a critical mass of talent.
10. Indian manufacturing goes from cost to capability
What’s happening
Indian manufacturing is shifting from low-cost production to high-value creation, design, engineering, quality, and compliance for global markets.
Why it matters
Companies are no longer competing only on price. They’re building credibility and trust with global customers across aerospace, industrials, advanced manufacturing. India is making better.
Why now
Supply chains are diversifying. Trade agreements are kicking in. Global buyers are actively looking beyond China.
11. AI in the factory
What’s happening
AI is no longer confined to software and dashboards. It’s entering factories, supply chains, and B2B marketplaces.
Why it matters
AI-driven sourcing, pricing, inventory management, and sales automation are shrinking cycle durations and reducing waste. When AI connects supply, demand, and operations, factories produce better.
12. AI rewiring consumer commerce
What’s happening
Commerce is being taken apart and rebuilt by AI: from discovery to conversion to fulfilment.
Why it matters
Conversation-first discovery has splintered into personalised feeds. Advertising links creatives to conversion with clarity.
Why now
Consumers want relevance. The AI-first internet is finally adapting to people.
13. 'Quicker Everything' will be the default system
What’s happening
Speed is becoming the organising principle. Q-commerce is spreading across services, healthcare, logistics.
Why it matters
Fragmented, informal markets are getting organised with q-comm, injecting trust, transparency, and reliability. Brands can now scale in months.
Why now
Consumer behaviour has been reset, and supply chains compressed. India’s consumer services are entering the 10X speed era.
Anish Patil, Ashwin Pandian and Kishan Kashyap are a part of the investment team at Z47 (formerly Matrix Partners India).
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)
1. Bharat-first products
What’s happening
UPI proved India will embrace the speed and comfort of digital payments. AI-enabled Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) will now help develop and scale Bharat-first products.
Why it matters
Education, entertainment, healthcare, legal support, financial literacy, etc., will scale in native languages and different formats, unlocking profit pools that were previously unreachable.
Why now
Payment rails solved monetisation. AI solves relevance at scale, so founders can build better for Bharat.
2. Personalised finance
What’s happening
2025 was the year Indian finance experimented with AI. 2026 will be the year AI personalises finance. The technology can help unlock insights into decades of behavioural data made available by the Account Aggregator system.
Why it matters
“A relationship manager for every Indian” will become a reality, transitioning from segments to persons, with customised loans, dynamic pricing, contextual nudges, and real-time recommendations tailored to individuals.
Why now
The Account Aggregator system along with AI will let BFSI giants finally unlock personalisation at scale.
3. AI-first financial distribution
What’s happening
The distribution economics in finance is breaking. AI is stepping in, enabling spending with intelligence.
Why it matters
Fi, OneCard, and Cred use AI to deliver differentiated, data-driven experiences, lowering CAC (customer acquisition cost), increasing loyalty.
4. AI moves into the middle office
What’s happening
AI in BFSI started with chatbots. The next shift will revolutionise the middle office.
Why it matters
Underwriting still runs on Excel. Collections still rely on people. Claims still take weeks. These workflows decide cost-to-income ratios. AI is rebuilding them efficiently.
Why now
Front-end gains are capped. Automation unlocks efficiency gains from the core business model.
5. Finance fraud’s gone hair-on-fire
What’s happening
Rs 36,014 crore lost to bank fraud in FY25, up 3X year-on-year.
Why it matters
Fraud, risk, compliance are no longer side quests. AI detects anomalies across billions of transactions, links, and other data, automates KYC / AML (anti-money laundering), and identifies mule networks.
Why now
The ROI is immediate. Every fraud prevented is margin protected.
6. A CFO for every SMB
What’s happening
If 2025 was about copilots for coders, 2026 will be about copilots for finance teams.
Why it matters
AI automates accounting, reconciliation, (monthly / quarterly) closures, FP&A (financial planning and analysis), tax, and treasury. India’s 60 million SMBs get CFO-level precision without CFO-level costs.
Why now
Earlier SMB software wasn’t quite accurate. Agentic AI has helped make this efficient.
7. AI learns to work
What’s happening
2025 was the year AI learned to talk. 2026 will be the year it learns to work.
Why it matters
Computer-use agents now click, edit, and act inside ERPs, CRMs, and spreadsheets, automating where the enterprise workforce spends the most time.
8. India, the world’s AI implementation backbone
What’s happening
As AI moves from demos to deployment, implementation becomes the bottleneck. FDEs (forward deployed engineers) who integrate and customise AI solutions are coming.
Why it matters
AI adoption depends on integration, ontology (the structure that contextualises the knowledge), compliance, and workflow stitching. This is where India’s services DNA excels. FDEs and AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS) will be the next export engine.
Why now
The AI moat will be execution: with deep talent pools, India can lead here.
9. Indian founders go global
What’s happening
In global markets, SaaS showed the way; consumer, B2B, and manufacturing are following.
Why it matters
India has become the world’s harshest proving ground. If you can win here, you’re built for anywhere. AI has flattened access to technology, while China-plus-one and export tailwinds are making Indian businesses global by default.
Why now
Access to AI models along with a critical mass of talent.
10. Indian manufacturing goes from cost to capability
What’s happening
Indian manufacturing is shifting from low-cost production to high-value creation, design, engineering, quality, and compliance for global markets.
Why it matters
Companies are no longer competing only on price. They’re building credibility and trust with global customers across aerospace, industrials, advanced manufacturing. India is making better.
Why now
Supply chains are diversifying. Trade agreements are kicking in. Global buyers are actively looking beyond China.
11. AI in the factory
What’s happening
AI is no longer confined to software and dashboards. It’s entering factories, supply chains, and B2B marketplaces.
Why it matters
AI-driven sourcing, pricing, inventory management, and sales automation are shrinking cycle durations and reducing waste. When AI connects supply, demand, and operations, factories produce better.
12. AI rewiring consumer commerce
What’s happening
Commerce is being taken apart and rebuilt by AI: from discovery to conversion to fulfilment.
Why it matters
Conversation-first discovery has splintered into personalised feeds. Advertising links creatives to conversion with clarity.
Why now
Consumers want relevance. The AI-first internet is finally adapting to people.
13. 'Quicker Everything' will be the default system
What’s happening
Speed is becoming the organising principle. Q-commerce is spreading across services, healthcare, logistics.
Why it matters
Fragmented, informal markets are getting organised with q-comm, injecting trust, transparency, and reliability. Brands can now scale in months.
Why now
Consumer behaviour has been reset, and supply chains compressed. India’s consumer services are entering the 10X speed era.
Anish Patil, Ashwin Pandian and Kishan Kashyap are a part of the investment team at Z47 (formerly Matrix Partners India).
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)
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