What's Next After US and Israeli Strikes on Iran? A Deep Dive into the Fallout
Dubai: Over the weekend, the United States and Israel executed coordinated military strikes against Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with numerous high-ranking officials. This has triggered a fierce response from Iran, raising fears of a broader conflict in the region.
US allies have committed to countering Iran's missile and drone attacks. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, has launched strikes on Israel for the first time in over a year, prompting retaliatory actions from Israel.
The first casualties among US military personnel have been reported, alongside fatalities in Israel and Gulf nations, while Iran claims that hundreds have died within its borders.
With Khamenei's passing, Iran faces the challenge of selecting a new supreme leader for the first time since 1989. US President Donald Trump has encouraged Iranians to take this opportunity to dismantle the theocratic regime that suppressed protests earlier this year, although no significant changes have been observed.
Globally, reactions have varied, with some celebrating and others protesting the strikes.
These attacks occurred shortly after the latest round of US-Iran negotiations aimed at regulating Tehran's nuclear ambitions. This situation mirrors last year's events when talks were disrupted by an Israeli strike, leading to a 12-day conflict and US bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has accused Iran of reviving its nuclear program recently.
Iran maintains that it has not enriched uranium since June but has obstructed IAEA inspectors from accessing the bombed sites.
Current Status in Iran
The 86-year-old Khamenei was killed during a bombing of his compound on Saturday morning. Iranian military installations, including ballistic missile sites and naval bases, were also targeted, with strikes reported at the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.
Without a designated successor, Iran has established a three-member leadership council, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that a new supreme leader will be appointed within a day or two. Reports of scattered celebrations over Khamenei's death have emerged, although internet restrictions in Iran complicate the monitoring of events.
In retaliation, Iran has launched attacks on Israel, resulting in several casualties, and has targeted US military bases in the region. The US military confirmed the deaths of three service members, marking the first known American casualties. Additional Iranian strikes have resulted in fatalities in Gulf nations, including the UAE and Kuwait, disrupting hundreds of flights at major airports.
The strikes followed a significant buildup of US military forces in the region, the largest in decades. US and Israeli intelligence had been monitoring the movements of senior Iranian officials for weeks. Trump has indicated that the extensive bombing campaign in Iran will persist for the foreseeable future.
US military installations across the region remain vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.
The US has expressed a willingness to engage with Iran's new leadership eventually. However, some Congressional leaders have voiced objections to the initiation of strikes without prior authorization.
Israel's Position
Israel perceives Iran as a critical threat and has long aimed to dismantle its nuclear and missile capabilities while targeting allied militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli operations have significantly weakened these groups since Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, which ignited the current conflict in Gaza.
In response to missile launches from Hezbollah, Israel conducted strikes in Lebanon early Monday.
Israel has committed to continuous military operations, claiming that at one point, 100 fighter jets were simultaneously targeting locations in Tehran. Following last year's conflict, Israel had proposed a plan to eliminate Khamenei, which has now been realized.
Throughout the weekend, Israelis sought shelter, but most of Iran's attacks were intercepted. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing international scrutiny over the Gaza conflict, is framing the situation as a victory for Israel's security.
However, threats persist from Iranian-backed factions like the Houthis in Yemen, who have vowed to resume assaults on shipping routes in the Red Sea and against Israel.
The current conflict is proving to be significantly more intense than last year's Israel-Iran war, during which the US intervened towards the end by targeting Iranian nuclear sites, leading to a calculated Iranian response against a US base in Qatar.
Now, hundreds of Iranian missile and drone strikes have caused panic across Gulf nations that previously enjoyed relative stability.
The United Arab Emirates reported disruptions at Dubai's main airport, with tourists reacting to the sounds of interceptor explosions. Saudi Arabia announced it intercepted attacks and summoned Iran's ambassador. Top diplomats from six Gulf states asserted their right to self-defense.
Oil prices surged sharply when trading resumed on Sunday, as traders anticipated a potential slowdown or halt in supply from this crucial region. Concerns about attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint, are also heightening supply worries.
In response, eight OPEC+ member countries announced plans to increase crude oil production.
On Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors is expected to provide initial insights into the impact of the conflict on Iran's nuclear program.