Iran war could push 32M into poverty: UN body

Iran war could push 32M into poverty: UN body

The ongoing conflict in Iran could push over 32 million people globally into poverty, according to a report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The report highlights a "triple shock" of energy, food prices, and weaker economic growth due to the war.

The UNDP warns that these shocks are reversing international development gains and will impact regions unevenly.

'Development in reverse'

The UNDP administrator, Alexander De Croo, also a former Belgian prime minister, said the conflict is "development in reverse." He warned that even if a ceasefire is achieved, the war's effects will be long-lasting.

The war's impact on the global economy includes rising energy prices after US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has disrupted oil and gas supplies worldwide.

UNDP calls for global response

The UNDP has called for a global response to support countries most affected by these economic shocks.

It proposes targeted cash transfers of $6 billion to protect vulnerable households in developing nations.

De Croo emphasized that international agencies could provide this financial support, saying, "There is a positive economic payout for giving short-term cash transfers to avoid people getting back into poverty."

Blanket subsidies not a solution

However, the UNDP has cautioned against blanket subsidies as they would support wealthier households and be financially unsustainable over time.

The report outlines three scenarios for the war's impact on poverty levels.

In a worst-case scenario with major disruptions to oil and gas production, up to 32.5 million people could fall into poverty globally.

Aid cuts by rich countries

The report indicates that half of the global poverty increase would be concentrated in 37 net energy-importing countries, including regions in the Gulf, Africa, Asia, and small island states.

While rich countries are better positioned to absorb these shocks, they have also cut aid spending amid high borrowing costs.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data shows a $174.3 billion cut in aid spending by its development assistance committee in 2025 compared to previous years.