Israel election 2026: Netanyahu's Likud alleges 'vote chori' as Arab parties eye historic 19 seats
Israel's parliamentary elections have triggered a political standoff, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party alleging electoral fraud amid a strong turnout among Arab voters. With Arab parties projected to secure a historic 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset, their support could prove decisive in determining who forms the next government.
The allegations of fraud, which include claims of bribery, intimidation and ballot manipulation, remain unproven. Likud has called for an investigation into the alleged irregularities, while the election results have intensified the debate over the role of Arab parties in Israel's political future.
Why Netanyahu's Likud is worried
According to preliminary projections, the Netanyahu-led bloc is expected to win 53 seats, while the opposition bloc led by Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot is projected to secure 48 seats. Both blocs fall short of the 61 seats required to command a majority in the Knesset.
The two predominantly Arab political parties, meanwhile, are projected to win a combined 19 seats, surpassing their previous record of 15 seats. Their performance could give them considerable bargaining power during coalition negotiations and potentially influence the selection of Israel's next prime minister.
Netanyahu had warned supporters during the election campaign that Arab voters were attempting to "steal the election". However, the allegations of widespread electoral malpractice have not been substantiated.
The strong turnout among Arab voters has emerged as a significant factor in the election, which was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership and his government's handling of security challenges, including the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks.
Eisenkot's coalition plans remain unclear
Eisenkot's next move could prove crucial as political parties begin exploring possible coalition arrangements. The opposition leader has yet to clarify whether he would seek the support of Arab parties to keep Netanyahu out of power.
Some opposition leaders have expressed willingness to work with Arab parties, while others have ruled out including them in a governing coalition. These differences could complicate efforts to build a stable government despite the combined numbers available to Netanyahu's opponents.
Arab political leaders have indicated that they are prepared to support efforts to remove Netanyahu's government, raising the possibility of a minority government or an arrangement based on parliamentary support from outside the coalition.
However, ideological differences and disagreements over security and national policy could make negotiations challenging. A failure to reach an agreement could prolong the political deadlock and raise the possibility of another election.
Can double-envelope ballots change the final outcome?
The counting process remains another important factor in Israel's electoral arithmetic. The official count had reached approximately 91 per cent early on Thursday, excluding double-envelope ballots that could still influence the final seat distribution.
These ballots allow eligible voters, including soldiers, hospital patients, prisoners and certain election workers, to cast their votes outside their designated polling stations. Their votes are subject to additional verification and counting procedures.
While the projected seat distribution offers an indication of the political balance, the final results could affect the parties' negotiating positions.
Israel's President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult political factions before deciding whom to ask to form the next government. With neither major bloc projected to secure an outright majority on its own, coalition negotiations are likely to determine whether Netanyahu retains power or the opposition manages to form an alternative government.
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