Weaker Republican showing could reshape US trade policy outlook: Expert

New Delhi, Nov 4 (IANS) A weaker-than-expected performance by the Republican Party in the US midterm elections could reignite debate over the future direction of American trade policy and influence ongoing trade negotiations with India, experts said on Wednesday.

According to Tanay Dalal, Senior Vice President (Business & Economic Research) at Axis Bank, changes in the composition of the US Congress are unlikely to significantly alter the institutional framework governing current trade negotiations.

He noted that any attempt to restore Congress’s authority over trade policy would require a veto-proof majority, a scenario that remains unlikely.

Dalal added that the scope for aggressive trade actions could gradually diminish amid a divided government in the United States and growing political constraints on the administration.

However, uncertainty is expected to persist due to ongoing legal challenges to existing tariff measures.

For India, the situation remains complex, he said. Geopolitical developments, particularly the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, are likely to continue shaping US trade policy.

As a result, even if Washington adopts a less aggressive stance on tariffs, India may not necessarily benefit.

The country could still face targeted US trade restrictions in areas where strategic and geopolitical interests diverge.

Meanwhile, commodity markets witnessed significant volatility following the Democrats’ victories in both the House and Senate.

Crude oil prices declined, with benchmark Brent crude falling 1.19 per cent to $102.39 per barrel and WTI crude slipping 0.78 per cent to $95.31 per barrel at the time of writing.

In contrast, precious metals gained. On COMEX, gold rose 2.72 per cent to $4,047 per ounce, while silver advanced 4.22 per cent to $51.85 per ounce.

Meanwhile, in other development, Indian officials reacted cautiously to the US midterm election results, saying the outcome could ease some pressure arising from trade tensions but also introduces fresh uncertainty into an already delicate bilateral relationship.

The Democratic Party secured sweeping victories in both chambers of the US Congress, delivering a significant setback to President Donald Trump.

His administration’s tariff policies and confrontation with Iran have had significant implications for countries such as India, which relies on the US as its largest export market and sources a substantial portion of its crude oil requirements from the Middle East.

--IANS