How McLaren can win F1 title seven weeks early at Azerbaijan Grand Prix

McLaren are on the brink of making F1 history this weekend at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with a chance to secure the constructors' championship title earlier than any team ever before. The British outfit has dominated the season, and now they have their first opportunity to mathematically confirm their successful title defence.

With seven more rounds to follow after Baku, including three Sprint races, McLaren's lead of 337 points is so substantial that they could realistically clinch the title by Sunday's end. If they manage to do so, it will set a new record for the earliest title win in F1 history, in terms of remaining rounds. The current record is held by Red Bull, who secured the championship with six rounds left during their dominant 2023 season, powered by Max Verstappen.

However, to achieve this feat in Azerbaijan, McLaren will need another strong performance - but the situation is very much under their control.

Behind McLaren, the competition is fierce. Ferrari currently hold second place, but only by a slim margin of 20 points ahead of Mercedes, while Red Bull trail in fourth place, 41 points behind the runners-up spot.

Despite the mathematical possibility of three teams catching McLaren before the year's end, the Woking-based team must outscore each by a specific number of points to secure their success in Baku.

For Mercedes and Red Bull, the task is straightforward for McLaren - outperform them on the track, and they are out of contention. Specifically, ensuring Mercedes don't accumulate 12 more points than them, and that Red Bull don't gain an additional 33 on Sunday, will confirm that McLaren can't be overtaken by either.

However, keeping Ferrari at bay requires a bit more effort. McLaren need to surpass the Scuderia by nine points in Baku to ensure they cannot be overtaken by their current closest competitors in the championship.

This scenario is highly probable - McLaren have only failed to outscore Ferrari by such a margin in one of the 16 rounds held so far this year. This occurred at the Canadian Grand Prix in June, when Oscar Piastri finished fourth with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton trailing him, but only because Lando Norris crashed while attempting to overtake his team-mate.

Otherwise, based solely on performance, McLaren would have once again had both cars leading.

Regardless of whether the title is clinched in Azerbaijan, when McLaren do secure their constructors' triumph, it will mark their 10th in history. This achievement will propel them to second place in the all-time list, surpassing the nine titles won by Williams over the years, yet still trailing behind Ferrari's impressive tally of 16 championships.